1.5°C compatible pathways
Raising 2030 ambition
Algeria’s NDC sets an unconditional target of reducing GHG emissions by 7% by 2030 compared to business-as-usual (BAU) levels.1 This translates into an increase in emissions of 16–39% above 2015 levels or around 291–351 MtCO₂e by 2030, excluding LULUCF.2,19 Provided that it receives adequate international support, Algeria is committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 22% by 2030 below BAU.1 This translates into an emissions level that ranges between a 3% reduction and 25% increase compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.2,19 To be in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Algeria would need to reduce emissions by 42–52% below 2015 levels by 2030, equalling to an emissions level of 122–147 MtCO₂e/yr.
Long term pathway
As of January 2022, Algeria has not communicated a net zero target nor submitted a Long-Term Emissions Strategy to the UNFCCC. To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Algeria’s GHG emissions would need to decline to 35–44 MtCO₂e/yr or 82–86% below 2015 levels by 2050. Achieving these goals would require stringent and ambitious policies, especially in the industry sector. Algeria’s economy is heavily reliant on fossil fuels exports. Moving away from fossil fuel industry and diversifying the economy would help the country achieve its climate goals and build a stronger and more sustainable economy.
1 Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire, de l’Environnement et du T. [MATET]. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC-Algeria). (2015).
2 Meinshausen M; Lewis J; Guetschow J; Nicholls Z; Burdon R. ‘NDC Factsheets’, 2021, version 14th February 2022. (2021).=
3 Ministère de l’Energie et des Mines [MEM]. Programme des énergies renouvelables et de l’efficacité énergétique. (2011).
4 Ministère de l’Energie et des Mines [MEM]. Bilan Energétique National 2019. (2020).
5 Bouznit, M. P.-R. M. del P. S.-B. A. Measures to promote renewable energy for electricity generation in Algeria. Sustainability 12, (2020).
6 Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire, de l’Environnement et du T. [MATET]. Inventaire national des émissions de gaz à effet de serre de l’année 2000, Projet 000039149/GEF/PNUD. (2010).
7 Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire, de l’Environnement et du T. [MATET]. Seconde Communication Nationale sur les Changements Climatiques (Projet ALG/FEM/PNUD/00839149). (2010).
8 IRENA. Estimating the Renewable Energy Potential in Africa. (2014).
9 Ministère de l’Energie et des Mines [MEM]. Programme de développement des énergies renouvelables et de l’efficacité énergétique en Algérie. (2016).
10 UNFCCC. Long-term strategies portal. (2022).
11 Climate Watch. Algeria, National Context. (2022).
12 Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire, de l’Environnement et du T. [MATET]. Plan National Climat (PNC) de l’Algérie. (2019).
13 International Energy Forum. Algeria Powers Ahead with Huge Renewable Energy Plans. (2021).
14 IEA. World Energy Outlook 2022. (2022).
15 Gouvernement de la République Algérienne Démocratique et Populaire. Loi n° 99-09 du 28 juillet 1999 relative à la maîtrise de l’énergie. (Journal Officiel de la République Algérienne N°51, 1999).
16 Gouvernement de la République Algérienne Démocratique et Populaire. Décret exécutif n° 04-314 du 25 Septembre 2004 modifiant et complétant le décret n° 85-235 du 25 août 1985, modifié et complété, portant création d’une agence pour la promotion et la rationalisation de l’utilisation de l’énergie. (Journal Officiel de la République Algérienne N°62, 2004).
17 Gouvernement de la République Algérienne Démocratique et Populaire. Décret exécutif n°17-166 du 22 mai 2017 modifiant et complètant le décret exécutif n° 13-218 du 18 juin 2013 fixant les conditions d’octroi des primes au titre des coûts de diversification de la production d’électricité. (Journal Officiel de la République Algérienne N°31, 2017).
18 Tamaryn Brown; Ajay Gambhir; Nicholas Florin; and Paul Fennell. Reducing CO2 emissions from heavy industry: a review of technologies and considerations for policy makers. (2012).
Algeriaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Energy system transformation
The main sources of GHG emissions in Algeria are fuel combustion in the energy sector (industry, buildings, and transport) and fugitive emissions from the extraction of oil and gas.1 The power sector transformation will be key to the energy sector decarbonisation, as well as transitioning away from the fossil fuel industry and the power sector are key in the decarbonisation of the energy sector of the country. Algeria’s total primary energy supply relied 100% on fossil fuels in 2020 with fossil gas having a share of 65% and oil 35%. To reduce emissions, Algeria will need to considerably scale up its renewable energy supply and transform its economy that is currently heavily based on fossil fuel exports. Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways shows that the share of fossil fuels in primary energy could be halved by 2040 and cut by close to a third by 2050. In its Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Development Plan (REEEDP) Algeria aims to improve energy efficiency. However, the country will need stronger measures to embark on a 1.5°C compatible transition pathway.3,9
In mid-2022 the government launched a tender for 1 GW of solar PV capacity.14 This would help Algeria transform its energy system to a more resilient and sustainable one. However, the country is still investing in fossil fuels and in 2011 the country started building hybrid gas and solar power stations (installation of hybrid power stations located at Hassi R’Mel).13 This is not consistent with the Paris agreement, as it will still allow for use of fossil fuels when these should be completely phased out.
Algeriaʼs primary energy mix
petajoule per year
- Renewables incl. biomass
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
Algeriaʼs total CO₂ emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Algeria. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
Indicator | 2015 Reference year | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year | 253 | 272 | 127 122 to 147 | 64 55 to 72 | 37 35 to 44 | |
Relative to reference year in % | −50% −52 to −42% | −75% −78 to −71% | −85% −86 to −82% | |||
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr | 168 | 184 | 100 78 to 105 | 34 16 to 48 | 11 4 to 27 | 2068 2057 |
Relative to reference year in % | −40% −54 to −37% | −80% −90 to −72% | −94% −97 to −84% |