South Africa’s power sector is dominated by coal (~90% in 2017). 1.5°C compatible pathways show the need to drastically reduce coal reliance by around 2030 to 10 -14%. Similarly, carbon intensity would need to drop in the current decade from 900 gCO₂/kwh to 80-150 gCO₂/kWh by 2030.
South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2019) aims to procure a total of 14,400 MW of Wind and 6000 MW of PV between 2022 and 2030, which would bring the annual energy generation of PV, Wind and concentrated solar power to approximately 24.7% of the power mix by 2030 – well short of the 78% and 90% required for a 1.5°C compatible pathway.16
While the IRP2019 outlines the decommissioning of several older coal plants, the commissioning of another 1500 MW of coal and 3000 MW of gas and diesel by 2030 is incompatible with bringing the carbon intensity of power production to zero.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The carbon intensity of power production needs to reduce from 900 gCO₂/kwh in 2017 to zero in 2035, and then contribute to negative emissions thereafter. Achieving this requires a far more ambitious decarbonisation plan than outlined in the IRP2019. This level of reduction requires coal to be phased out not later than 2033, and a share of renewable energy in power generation close to 100% by 2040.
Between 2011 and 2015 South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) added renewable energy to the power mix and drove down the cost of supply of electricity.14
28 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
South Africaʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
−100−5005010015020025019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Africa
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised power sector by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
930
80 to 150
−120 to 0
−80 to −10
2036 to 2040
Relative to reference year in %
−91 to −84%
−113 to −100%
−109 to −101%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of phase-out
Share of unabated coal
Percent
89
10 to 14
0
0
2033
Share of unabated gas
Percent
0
0
0
0
Share of renewable energy
Percent
5
78 to 90
92 to 99
96 to 100
Share of unabated fossil fuel
Percent
90
10 to 15
0 to 1
0
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
South Africaʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
203020402050206046
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in South Africa to be on the order of USD 7 to 55 billion by 2030 and 6 to 39 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and/or growing energy demand and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.