In late 2020 Russia updated its NDC from a 25-30% reduction below 1990 levels by 2030, to a 30% reduction. This does not represent an increase in ambition as government projections show Russia will achieve this target under current unambitious policies.
Russia would need to almost triple its planned 2030 emissions reductions to at least 65% below 1990 levels (excluding LULUCF) to be 1.5°C compatible.
Russia’s draft long-term climate strategy targets a 36-48% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by 2050.
This stands in contrast with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which show a reduction in total GHG emissions of at least 90% by 2050 below 1990 levels or around 321 MtCO₂e/yr, when excluding emissions from the land sector.
Russia will need to balance its remaining emissions to reach net zero GHG. The Russian government aims to increase its large current LULUCF sink substantially beyond 2030, but questions remain regarding an announced change to emissions accounting in the forestry sector that would violate IPCC reporting guidelines.
A comprehensive re-evaluation of the future role of fossil fuels in the Russian economy is needed to shift Russia to a 1.5°C compatible trajectory, which would require 92-100% renewable energy generation by 2050.