In late 2020 Russia updated its NDC from a 25-30% reduction below 1990 levels by 2030, to a 30% reduction. This does not represent an increase in ambition as government projections show Russia will achieve this target under current unambitious policies.
Russia would need to more than double its planned 2030 emissions reductions to at least 74% below 1990 levels (excluding LULUCF) to be 1.5°C compatible.
Russia’s draft long-term climate strategy targets a 36-48% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by 2050.
This stands in contrast with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which show a reduction in total GHG emissions of at least 93% by 2050 below 1990 levels or around 223 MtCO₂e/yr, when excluding emissions from the land sector.
Russia will then need to balance its remaining emissions to reach net zero GHG. With its current land sink, Russia is well positioned to reach net zero GHG without reliance on technological CDR.
A comprehensive re-evaluation of the future role of fossil fuels in the Russian economy is needed to shift Russia to a 1.5°C compatible trajectory, which would require 92-100% renewable energy generation by 2050.