To be on a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the share of renewable energy in the power mix would need to ramp up from 23% in 2017 to at least 77% by 2030 and 100% by 2050.
Nigeria’s current target for renewable energy generation in the power sector is 30% by 2030.2 Off-grid renewable energy solutions represent an opportunity to increase renewable-based electricity while expanding electricity access in rural areas, securing reliability of the grid and reducing transmission and distribution losses. In 2017, Nigeria implemented mini-grid regulations providing guidance for systems up to 1 MW and interconnected mini-grids.
Phasing out gas in the power sector between 2030 and 2040 would enable the required power sector transformation, to a carbon intensity between zero and 10 gCO2/kWh by 2040. Coal does not currently contribute to the power mix and would not expand in a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Nigeria’s 2018 draft revised National Energy Policy includes plans to pursue coal-fired generation in the power sector.3 Considering the long lifetimes and decreasing competitiveness of coal and gas-power plants, delaying decarbonisation comes with significant risks to investors, of stranded assets, as well as risks to society of locking into high-cost, high-emission technologies.
Key power sector benchmarks
Renewables shares and year of zero emissions power Including the use of BECCS
- 2030 30 % Renewable share
- 2030 77 to 100% Renewable share
- 2039-2042 Zero emissions power