In May 2021, Nigeria submitted to the UNFCCC an interim update NDC report that reiterates Nigeria’s conditional and unconditional targets presented in 2017, but states the government has not yet reviewed or approved the level of ambition for the mitigation component. The interim update provides a significantly revised 2030 BAU projection and historical emissions.
Nigeria’s NDC targets GHG emissions reductions of 45% below business as usual (BAU) by 2030 including LULUCF. Taking historical data revisions from the interim update into account, Nigeria’s conditional target translates to an emissions level excluding LULUCF of 214 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or 33% below 2015 levels.
Nigeria’s conditional NDC is well in line with a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions range, requiring an emissions reduction of -13% to -35% below 2015 levels excl. LULUCF (or 210-281 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excl. LULUCF). The level of uncertainties on LULUCF emissions might strongly influence the target compatibility with 1.5°C compatible pathways.
The implementation of Nigeria’s domestic emissions pathway will be made possible with and through international support to close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level.
Nigeria does not have a net zero target as of April 2021, but is in the process of developing a long-term strategy. 1.5°C compatible pathways show GHG emissions reductions of 42% (33-54%) by 2050 below 2015 levels or 186 (147-215) MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF) by 2050. While there is high uncertainty on the level of LULUCF emissions, strong efforts to reduce LULUCF emissions will be needed for the country to reach net zero GHG emissions and balance its remaining emissions with the land sector.
CO₂ emissions reductions will be enabled largely by the rapid decarbonisation of the power sector, which is also a catalyst for decarbonisation of other sectors. Reductions in the transport and industry sectors would be secondary priorities as they are significant contributors to Nigeria’s emissions.