What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Japan
Scale up renewables and phase out fossil fuels to decarbonise the power sector by 2040
Rapid expansion of wind and solar could lead to almost half of electricity generation generated from renewables by 2030 and about 88% by 2040. This helps effectively phase out coal and oil from the power mix by 2030 and gas by 2040. Redirecting finance from LNG toward grid infrastructure, storage, and clean capacity is critical to unlock full power-sector decarbonisation by 2040, reduce emissions and dependence and avoid risk of stranded assets.
Japan's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
-
Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
-
Accelerating electrification and hydrogen deployment can reduce industry’s LNG dependence
Industry can slash emissions in half by 2040 through renewables-based electrification and hydrogen-based production (together meeting roughly 70% of energy demand), particularly in steel. Sufficient policy support and financial instruments will be required to reduce the cost of clean energy and shift Japanese industry away from fossil fuels.
EVs are critical to aligning Japanese transport with 1.5°C
Japan’s transport could be almost completely decarbonised by 2050. Displacing oil from the system and reducing reliance on hybrids would require a combination of rapid electrification – supported by expanded charging infrastructure and stronger incentives for EV adoption – and targeted use of biofuels and synthetic fuel.