The mineral, metal and chemical industries are the mainstay of Zimbabwe’s industry sector with emissions intensive ferrochrome and cement production, and nitrogen fertiliser production dominating outputs., Even though these industries also tend to be energy intensive, their small scale in the country means the sector’s emissions – of 3.8% (when excl. LULUCF) – were a small proportion of Zimbabwe’s total emissions in 2017. Between 1990 and 2019 the carbon intensity of the industry followed a downward trend from 67 gCO₂/MJ to 37 gCO₂/MJ due in large part to a flagging economy and competition from cheaper fertiliser imports.,
Direct CO₂ emissions from the sector were just over 1 MtCO₂e in 2019. The low CDR reliance pathway has the sharpest decline and shows emissions at just above zero by 2030. Depending on the scenario, the industry sector would need to be decarbonised around the mid-2030s. Increasing electrification of the sector will be one of the levers to decarbonise, with scenarios indicating an increase from 39% in 2019 to just below 50% by 2030.
Process emissions have trended downward between 2000 and 2017 due to the decline in the performance of the industry sector and overall contraction of the economy. Process related emissions were about 1.2 MtCO₂e in 2019, but in contrast to direct emissions, these are projected to peak at 3.3 MtCO₂e in 2040 under low demand circumstances.