What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Emissions intensity of the transport sector’s energy demand has remained at 72 g CO₂/MJ since 1990 while direct CO₂ emissions from the transport sector have increased 44% in the past 10 years (2009-2019). Emissions need to peak by 2025 or sooner, and decrease by up to 44% by 2030, and could reach zero emissions by 2050 following 1.5°C pathway.
Viet Nam's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The main fuel in the transport sector is petrol, with diesel representing 98% of the transport fuels in 2019. One 1.5°C scenario shows that hydrogen could provide up to 16% of the energy needed in the sector by 2030 and 65% by 2050 (SSP1 High CDR Reliance) and decarbonise the sector if produced from renewable energy. For example, green hydrogen can fuel boats, heavy vehicles, and rail transport. For other transport modes, electricity could provide around 13% of needed energy by 2050. These scenarios underestimate the potential for electric vehicles including cars, buses, two and three wheelers. Until recently, government support for electric vehicles was lacking in Viet Nam, while the private sector has pushed for EV exports and a rollout of charging stations.1 The government plans to reduce the excise tax and registration fees for battery powered electric cars from March 2022.2 Furthermore, the country is well positioned to become a metals suppliers for the EV battery producers of the region given its resources in nickel, cobalt, and other mineral ores.
Viet Nam would need to implement further policies to reduce emissions from the transport sector to reduce dependence on oil and incentivise the transition to electric vehicles, as well as support a modal switch to zero emissions transport.
Sustainable biofuels may also play a role, and could represent 3% of transport energy demand by 2050 in line with a 1.5°C pathway.
Viet Nam's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
42
|
23 to
27
|
17 to
22
|
0 to
19
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-44 to
-35%
|
-59 to
-48%
|
-100 to
-53%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
1
|
4 to
7
|
11 to
12
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
1
|
2 to
3
|
3 to
5
|
4 to
15
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
17
|
7 to
52
|
65 to
86
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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