What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Viet Nam’s energy sector is dominated by fossil fuels, which contributes to more than half of its total emissions. Economic growth and the government’s goal to ensure affordable, universal electrification have led to rising energy demand, which is largely met by fossil fuels, in particular coal.1 Viet Nam became a net energy importer in 2014, which presents risks to energy security.2 However, Viet Nam has large, untapped potential for renewable energy, especially solar and offshore wind resources.3
Viet Nam’s main emitting sector is its energy sector, which includes transport and other end use sectors. It comprises 55% of emissions (excluding LULUCF). The industrial sector is responsible for 12% of total emissions (excluding LULUCF), and has grown by 140% over the past decade. Industrial process emissions are mainly from cement production, followed by steel, lime and ammonia production.4 These sectors are harder to abate, but need to peak emissions immediately and decline to follow a Paris Agreement compatible pathway. Decarbonisation efforts therefore need to prioritise industry and energy sectors.
Agriculture emissions cover 28% of emissions excluding LULUCF. Emissions are mainly from rice cultivation, livestock (enteric fermentation and manure management) and soil management.5 Waste accounts for 7% of total emissions. Half of waste emissions are the result of waste disposal sites and 30% from domestic wastewater treatment.6
ffn1. Global Gas Plant Tracker. Global Gas Plant Tracker – Global Energy Monitor. (2021).
Viet Nam's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Last available (negative) LULUCF data point from 2014
Data References
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Energy system
The energy sector is crucial to decarbonising the country’s economy, but carbon intensive development have to date outweighed the recent renewable energy installations in this sector. Coal and gas continue to play a large role in energy policy and the country is seeing the risk of shifting to LNG deployment through the Japanese power producer JERA deploying its activities in Viet Nam. The draft Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8) plans to cancel some coal fired power generation; however, the planned capacity remains substantial. At COP26, Viet Nam pledged to end investment in new coal power generation, increase renewables, and phase out coal by the 2040s with a just transition for workers.7,8 The draft PDP8 may be further revised in line with this commitment. The draft PDP 8 also plans to ramp up gas and oil-fired power, with over 27 GW of additional capacity planned for 2030.
Viet Nam has huge renewables potential, and could become a regional leader in solar and offshore wind.9 Our analysis suggests that renewable energy could grow to power 100% of the country’s electricity by 2040, and 100% of the total primary energy supply by 2050. In the process of updating Viet Nam’s NDC, bottom up energy scenarios focusing on a 100% RE deployment are being explored through the ‘Implementing NDC’s with 100% Renewable Energy (RE) for All’ project.
Viet Nam would need to implement further policies to reduce emissions from the transport sector to reduce dependence on oil and transition to electric vehicles, as well as support a modal switch to low or zero emissions transport. The industry sector requires substantial decarbonisation efforts as emissions have increased 140% over the past decade.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Unconditional NDC Target:
- 9% below business-as-usual by 2030 incl. LULUCF.
- BAU by 2030: 927.9 MtCO₂e/yr.
- 141% above 2015 excl. LULUCF.
Conditional NDC Target:
- 27% below business-as-usual by 2030 incl. LULUCF.
- 100% above 2015 excl. LULUCF.
Market mechanisms
- To be developed.
Long-term target
- Net-zero emissions by 2050, with international support.10
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Reduce emissions by 5.5% compared with BAU by 2030.11
- Increase renewable energy in the total primary energy consumption to 31% in 2020, 32.3% in 2030, 44% in 2050 (Renewable Energy Development Strategy).12
- Reduce greenhouse gases emission from energy activities by 15% by 2030, and 20% by 2045 from (an unspecified) BAU (Resolution 55).13
- Energy savings of 7% by 2030 and up to 20% by 2045 in total energy consumption compared to BAU (Resolution 55).
- Renewable energy to represent 15-20% of the total primary energy supply by 2030 and 25-30% by 2045 (Resolution 55).
- Reduce the total final energy consumption by 5-7% in 2025 below BAU levels, and by 8-10% in 2030 (Viet Nam National Energy Efficiency Program 3).14
Power
- Renewables to represent 7% in 2020 and 10% 2030, excluding large/medium/pumped storage hydro (Revised PDP 7).15
- Phase out coal power generation by the 2040s.16
Agriculture
- Reduce emissions by 0.7% compared with BAU by 2030 (Updated NDC).
Waste
- Reduce emissions by 1% compared with BAU by 2030 (Updated NDC).
Industry
- Reduce emissions by 0.8% compared with BAU by 2030 (Updated NDC).
- Reduce cement industry emissions, 20 MtCO₂e by 2020 and 164 MtCO₂e by 2030 compared with unknown BAU levels.17
- Further subsector energy efficiency targets for industry.18
LULUCF
- Reduce emissions by 1% compared with BAU by 2030 (Updated NDC).
- Halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030.19