Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Viet Nam updated its NDC in September 2020. The unconditional target aims for 9% emissions reduction below a business-as-usual (BAU) trajectory by 2030 including LULUCF. Viet Nam also has a conditional target of 27% below BAU by 2030 (including LULUCF), equivalent to 748 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF. The country aims to update its NDC ahead of COP27.

While the new targets are stronger than the original target, they are not 1.5°C compatible, and can easily be met under current policies.¹ Viet Nam could more than double its current emissions by 2030 and still meet its NDC. The target therefore does not present a true progression in scaling up climate action, as it does not require any additional effort, and in fact increases emissions by 100-141% from 2015 levels.

Our analysis indicates that a target in line with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit would require a 31-48% decrease below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF. Emissions would need to peak immediately and decrease thereafter.

Under the Paris Agreement, international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building, will be needed for Viet Nam to close the emissions gap between its fair share and its domestic emissions pathway.

Viet Nam's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

At COP26, Viet Nam committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, conditional on international support, and is in the process of developing its long-term strategy.² A 1.5°C compatible pathway requires Viet Nam to reduce its GHG emissions by 77% from 2015 levels by 2050 or from 449 MtCO₂e in 2019 to 75 MtCO₂e in 2050 excluding LULUCF. Viet Nam could reach net zero GHG emissions if LULUCF is included, and the carbon sink is expanded. Total GHG emissions need to peak immediately.

Viet Nam could reach 77-97% CO₂ emissions reduction below 2015 levels by 2050 when excluding LULUCF.³ Viet Nam will then need to balance its remaining GHG emissions by deploying carbon dioxide approaches such as land sinks or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

The energy sector requires the largest share of emissions reductions, as this sector is responsible for most emissions. The energy sector can reach net zero or be a carbon sink by around 2040 using CDR.

Our analysis shows that industrial processes emissions (mainly from cement production) could reach net zero GHGs by 2040, as modelled in the High CDR reliance scenario, with the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Remaining unabated emissions from industrial processes in other pathways would need to be compensated with CDR.

Emissions from waste could reach very low levels to 2 MtCO₂e by 2050. Emissions from agriculture such as rice cultivation, digestive processes in animals and livestock manure could also decline to lower levels, but remain present in all scenarios. Ambitious emissions mitigation policies will be required in these sectors, in addition to CDR in other sectors, to offset the remaining emissions and ensure net zero GHGs can be reached. The reliance on CDR can be lowered by utilising Viet Nam’s huge renewable energy potential to reduce emissions in the energy sector, in addition to electrifying industry and transport sectors.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

A Paris Agreement compatible pathway requires a shift from fossil fuels to renewables. Our analysis suggests that renewable energy in Viet Nam’s primary energy supply could potentially increase from 28% in 2017, to 66% in 2030 and 91% in 2050 in a low energy demand scenario (meaning energy efficiency measures would also need to be implemented as a part of the energy transition).

In this same scenario, fossil fuels decrease from 72% in 2017 to 34% in 2030 and 9% in 2050. The remaining emissions in 2050 will need to be balanced by the use of carbon removal technologies (CDR) such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS).

Total final energy consumption is largely (55%) from the industry sector, although energy consumption in this sector has decreased in recent years.⁴ Viet Nam could further reduce industry energy consumption through energy efficiency improvements. Decarbonisation on the industry sector is possible through electrifying heat production, mainstreaming energy efficient processes, or green hydrogen use.

Transport accounts for 21% of final energy consumption.⁵ The transport sector can decarbonise by electrifying the transport sector, transitioning from combustion engines to electric cars and motorcycles, scaling electric public transport, and switching transport modes to reduce energy demand.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Viet Nam. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	329	449	194 171 to 227	115 100 to 125	75 69 to 88
Relative to reference year in %			-41% -48 to -31%	-65% -70 to -62%	-77% -79 to -73%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	211	331	126 111 to 150	64 28 to 75	16 7 to 49	2069
Relative to reference year in %			-40% -47 to -29%	-70% -87 to -64%	-92% -97 to -77%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker. Viet Nam can easily achieve its new target, but it does now cover whole economy and is clearer. Climate Action Tracker. (2020). ↩
Phạm Minh Chính. Viet Nam will take stronger measures to reduce greenhouse gas emission: PM . Viet Nam News. (2021). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
IEA. Vietnam. International Energy Agency. (2021). ↩
IEA. Vietnam. International Energy Agency. (2021). ↩

What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Viet Nam's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Viet Nam's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Viet Nam's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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