What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Buildings

Emissions from the building sector have increased by 84% in the past 10 years. There was a large increase in direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector energy demand in 2015, resulting from an increase in coal consumption.1 All 1.5°C scenarios show an immediate decline in emissions.

Viet Nam's energy mix in the buildings sector

petajoule per year

Scaling

In 2019, the energy demand in this sector was mostly met with electricity (75%), and fossil fuels (20%, with coal 5% and oil 15%), and biomass (5%). The electricity mix was however in 2019 made of 69% of fossil fuels (see the power section for more details).

Viet Nam could reach ´zero building sector emissions by 2037-2049. The “low energy demand” scenario reaches full decarbonisation rapidly. In this scenario, the electricity share in the building sector energy demand reaches 90% share by 2030, and 96% by 2050. The building sector would be largely decarbonised if it underwent high rates of electrification, in combination with high renewable energy penetration in the power sector. (i.e. meeting the benchmarks of 93-95% renewable power by 2030 and a decarbonised power sector by 2035/6). Green hydrogen could also play a part in the building sector energy mix with a share of up to 3% in 2030, 2040, and 2050, following 1.5°C pathways.

To decarbonise the building sector, Viet Nam would need to phase out fossil fuels and replace wood and coal stoves and heating/cooling with energy efficient electric appliances.

Viet Nam's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised buildings sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
6
1 to 3
0 to 2
0 to 1
2029 to 2033
Relative to reference year in %
-87 to -53%
-100 to -75%
-100 to -90%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
per cent
75
88 to 94
95 to 96
95 to 98
Share of heat
per cent
0
0 to 0
0 to 0
0 to 0
Share of hydrogen
per cent
0
1 to 3
3 to 3
3 to 3

All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

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