What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Industrial process emissions have grown 172% over the past decade (2009 to 2019) and the sector is responsible for 12% of Viet Nam’s total emissions (excluding LULUCF). Emissions in this sector are from the production of cement (80%), iron and steel (8%), lime (8%) and ammonia (3%).1
Viet Nam's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Industry energy use emissions are responsible for 15% of the country total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF). Direct CO₂ emissions of energy demand have fluctuated, and have been rising since 2016 reaching 73 MtCO₂ in 2019. Paris Agreement compatible benchmarks indicate this could increase by 66-87% in 2030 and by 93-99% in 2050.
Under the “high energy demand low CDR reliance 1.5°C scenario”, emissions (and emissions intensity) of industry energy demand peak in 2025, and rapidly decline afterwards, while in all other 1.5°C scenarios, emissions decline immediately .
In 2019, electricity (30%) and biomass (14%) represented 44% share of the industry sector’s energy demand while coal accounted for 48% of the energy mix. To be 1.5°C compatible, electricity share would need to increase to 45-46% by 2030, 59-63% by 2040 and 70-78% by 2050. Electrification of industrial processes, along with a high percentage share of a renewable energy in the power sector, would support the decarbonisation of this sector. Electricity, hydrogen and biomass could increase to 66-69% in 2030 and 82-96% in 2050 following a 1.5°C pathway.
Hydrogen, which plays a minor role in the pathways, would need to be “green” (produced from renewable energy) to decarbonise the sector. For example, green hydrogen can produce low/zero carbon ammonia and steel. A wind developer Enterprize and the Vietnamese Institute of Energy are conducting a study to assess green hydrogen’s potential in Viet Nam. Enterprize is exploring possibilities to develop 3.4 GW wind farm off the cost of Bin Thuan province, with the potential for 330,000 t/yr of green hydrogen produced for export or domestic use.2
The Viet Nam National Energy Efficiency Policy (VNEEP3 2019-2030) outlines energy efficiency targets for industry, separated by sub-sector such as reducing average energy consumption by 10% in the chemical industry.3 Viet Nam could improve on this policy by aligning the policy with the 1.5°C benchmarks.
Viet Nam's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Viet Nam's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
73
|
10 to
25
|
6 to
12
|
1 to
5
|
2044 to
2045
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-87 to
-66%
|
-92 to
-84%
|
-99 to
-93%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
30
|
45 to
46
|
59 to
63
|
70 to
78
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
44
|
66 to
69
|
77 to
90
|
82 to
96
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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