What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Industry energy use and processes accounted for 16% of total emissions in 2024, primarily driven by manufacturing, chemicals, fossil fuel refining, and iron and steel production. Industry sector emissions have trended downwards since 2000 as the US economy continues to move away from manufacturing towards a service-based economy and remaining manufacturers invest in cleaner and more efficient production.1, 2 The Trump administration has made a number of promises around a return to manufacturing, which could push sector emissions up due to higher output levels, however manufacturing employment has dropped slightly during the second Trump administration as businesses face heightened energy costs, a chaotic trade environment and challenges recruiting workers.3 While our latest historical emissions data is for 2024, initial estimates for 2025 do show a slight uptick in emissions, driven by the energy and emissions-intensive chemicals and mineral industries rather than sector-wide growth.4
The fossil fuel production sector contributes an additional 9% of economy-wide emissions. However, methane emissions from fossil fuel production have dropped steadily over the past decade as venting has decreased.5
The industrial energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, which accounted for 72% of the mix in 2023. Fossil gas and oil play the largest roles, at roughly 36% each.
United States' energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares include both energy and non-energy use (eg. the use of oil to generate heat for industry use and as a feedstock to produce products such as plastics).
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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The industry sector in the United States has significant potential to reduce emissions and make energy efficiency improvements. Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, by 2050 total energy demand in the sector would drop by roughly 45% with a fossil fuel phase-out occurring before 2050. By 2050, electricity, synthetic fuels, biogas and biofuels can make up nearly the entire energy mix as total energy demand stabilises. Electrification is a critical route to decarbonising industry, pushing fossil fuels out of the sector. As industry electrifies, establishing a 100% renewable power sector becomes even more important to ensure demand is met sustainably.6 Development of green hydrogen will also play an important role, but hydrogen buildout has slowed as tax credits have been rolled back and financial resources (and electricity) have been redirected towards data centres.7
Aligning with 1.5°C would see process emissions follow a similar path to direct CO₂ emissions, decreasing rapidly before stabilising around mid-century. Currently process emissions are dominated by the refrigeration, iron and steel, fossil fuel refining, and chemicals industries.8 Chemicals and plastics manufacturing subsector is critical to the rapid transformation seen in the HPA scenario because they use petrochemicals as feedstocks for production. Alternative feedstocks including green hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic fuels push fossil fuels out of the sector, while circular economy policies to simplify plastic types and increase recycling rates can reduce the need for new feedstocks.9,10,11
While cement is not a major contributor to industry emissions, the United States is home to pioneering zero carbon cement producers who are partnering with Amazon and Microsoft to support the buildout of data centres.12, 13 While these firms have demonstrated the viability of their production processes and ability to effectively cut process emissions from cement production, funding cuts at the Department of Energy risk their scale-up.14
Reducing methane emissions across both industrial energy use and processes is expected to be a key lever to limit 1.5°C overshoot under the HPA scenario. The United States is the largest emitter of methane from oil and fossil gas production.15 Under the second Trump administration, methane emission regulations and funding for data collection and mitigation projects have been significantly rolled back.16
United States' industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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United States' GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathway, excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible path is based on the HPA scenario.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from the HPA scenario for United States
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
441
|
355
|
145
|
35
|
-36
|
-43
|
-40
|
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-20%
|
-67%
|
-92%
|
-108%
|
-110%
|
-109%
|
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
24
|
30
|
56
|
75
|
81
|
75
|
75
|
Fuel shares include both energy and non-energy use (eg. the use of oil to generate heat for industry use and as a feedstock to produce products such as plastics).
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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