What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the buildings sector
The buildings sector in the United States accounted for roughly 9% of total emissions in 2024, nearly entirely CO₂. While electricity accounted for just over half of the sector’s energy mix, fossil gas accounted for 39% and oil 6%. The United States’ residential and commercial buildings sector consumes roughly 75% of total electricity generated and electricity demand has climbed in recent years as a massive data centre buildout increases the sector’s total energy demand.1,2
United States' energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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The sector decarbonises around 2040 as increased electrification improves energy efficiency, pushing fossil fuels out of the system. Total energy demand in the sector decreases by 38% between 2023 and 2040, while the relative share of electricity consumed increases from 51% to 89%.
Energy efficiency and electrification can be achieved through demand-side approaches supported by stringent building energy codes and regulation.3 When paired with finance mechanisms and technical workforce capacity building, strong building codes can both shape and support consumer preferences, driving deep retrofitting of the United States’ building stock, improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions. High energy prices and increased demand for heating and cooling are expected to push consumers to improve the energy efficiency of their buildings and switch from fossil fuels to renewables for electricity and heating where possible.4 However, increased heating and cooling costs are also expected to contribute to energy insecurity, placing a significant burden on lower-income households.5
Other common retrofitting measures in the US include envelope weatherisation and insulation additions to improve efficiency and temperature regulation.6 Switching to electricity and investing in advanced heating and cooling systems are expected to bring additional co-benefits like improved reliability and health outcomes, as well as job creation.7
Local and state-level regulation and incentives for buildings sector decarbonisation can play a significant role but will need to be clearly aligned to create a cohesive strategy in the absence of federal climate action.8 Local and state zoning rules and building regulations should integrate decarbonisation goals early by limiting emissions for new construction, adding incentives for sustainable building practices, and setting standards for new buildings.9,10 Local governments can make significant strides by moving to decarbonise their own building portfolios and assets, supporting local green industry, and increasing public awareness of building decarbonisation requirements.11
United States' buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from 1.5°C pathway based on the HPA scenario for United States
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
Buildings sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
514
|
343
|
125
|
8
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2038
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-33%
|
-76%
|
-98%
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
51
|
58
|
75
|
89
|
89
|
92
|
96
|
|
Share of heat
%
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. The year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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