What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Primary Energy
Primary energy
Primary energy in the United States undergoes a rapid transformation in the HPA scenario. Currently dominated by fossil fuels, both the absolute and relative amounts of unabated fossil fuels in the energy mix decrease rapidly, until effectively phased out by 2050.
United States' primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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Renewable electrification plays a critical role in the transformation of the US’ primary energy mix. Accounting for roughly 4% of the mix in 2023, non-biomass renewables are rapidly phased in, reaching 37% of the mix by 2035 and rising to 68% by 2050. Rapid introduction of renewables into the primary energy mix is a fundamental driver of the fossil fuel phase out seen in the HPA scenario. In the United States, electrification in the transport, industry and buildings sectors will be key to decarbonisation and minimising overshoot of the 1.5°C limit
A tandem transformation in energy demand is expected because of increased electrification. In the HPA scenario by 2035, total primary energy decreases by 35% compared to 2023 levels and then effectively plateaus through 2060. This is due to the inherently inefficient nature of fossil fuels – when coal, oil and gas are burned to create electricity or motion, a large amount of their energy is wasted as heat. Electrification, on the other hand, provides energy services with near 100% efficiency (and in the case of heat pumps, above 100% efficiency). Electrification technologies are around 2-4 times more efficient than their fossil counterparts. Electrifying the energy system can reduce the scale of energy supply needed, even while meeting a growing demand for energy services.
The United States is poised to make significant gains in energy efficiency through electrification across all sectors. For more on sectoral transformation see our sectors pages.