What is Thailand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
In 2020, Thailand’s power mix was fossil fuel heavy, with natural gas making up a 66% share and coal representing 20%.1 To get on a 1.5°C pathway, the power sector would need to see a sharp increase in the share of renewables in electricity generation from 16% in 2020 to 57–67% by 2030. Thailand would need to phase out fossil gas between 2040 and 2042 at the latest and coal by around 2034. Thailand’s power sector’s emissions intensity would need to fall to 100–180 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, a 62–78% decrease from 2019 levels, and the sector would need to be fully decarbonised between 2033 and 2040.
A 1.5°C pathway could see renewables displace fossil fuels in the power sector and represent 100% of the mix by 2040. However, policy developments indicate that Thailand is not currently on track for achieving this. The government’s revised LTS aims for a 74% share of renewable electricity generation by 2050 and the revised Power Development Plan aims for renewables to represent only 37% of power generation by 2037.2,3 Thailand’s Energy Regulatory Commission also halted the connecting of new ground mounted solar and wind projects to the grid in 2016, disincentivising investment in renewables.4 At the same time, the 2013 feed-in-tariff, auctions, and community power programmes have not attracted large interest.5
Thailand faces energy security supply risks as imports from neighbouring countries are sometimes cut due to maintenance.6 Renewable energy technologies offer a potential solution to diversify Thailand’s power mix and to rely on domestic energy rather than face the uncertainty of imports and price fluctuations. Studies have shown considerable potential for renewable energy in Thailand from solar, wind, biomass, ocean wave energy and hydropower.7-8 Hydropower developments in the region can, however, negatively impact local communities in the lower Mekong area.9
Paris Agreement compatible pathways show a high potential for renewable energy in the country. Having a 100% renewable energy-based power system by 2040 would avoid a reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. A commitment to 100% renewable power sector would require policy certainty to secure investments.
Thailand's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Power sector in 2030
Thailand’s power system is heavily dependent on fossil gas, with an emissions intensity of 460 gCO₂/kWh in 2019. Given the sector’s important role in the country’s decarbonisation, all analysed pathways show its emissions declining rapidly. Decarbonising the power system requires a significant scale-up of renewable power technologies, including solar and wind power. Currently, the share of geothermal and hydro is negligible (around 2.5%) in Thailand’s power mix, with solar and wind contributing around 5% of electricity generation.
A stronger push for renewables uptake could result in emissions intensity dropping to 100-180 gCO₂/kWh as early as 2030 and align Thailand with a 1.5°C compatible pathway without having to rely on the use of CDR technologies.10 Thailand’s power system regulation is slowly transforming but faster action is required to achieve the necessary pace of emissions reductions.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
A full decarbonisation of the power sector is achieved in 1.5°C compatible pathways from as early as 2033, by phasing out coal by around 2034, followed by gas by between 2033–2040.
Thailand aims to rely on technologies such as CCUS and BECCS to achieve its long-term goal of “carbon neutrality” by 2050. Given the cost of these technologies and that they are not yet available at scale, a safer path would be to focus on fostering the development of renewable energy technologies instead.
Thailand's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Thailand to be on the order of USD 2 to 30 billion by 2030 and 6 to 67 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Increasing energy efficiency could reduce the level of energy demand and the high investment level in renewable energy required. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Thailand's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Thailand
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
461
|
103 to
177
|
-299 to
0
|
-253 to
-46
|
2033 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-78 to
-62%
|
-165 to
-100%
|
-155 to
-110%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
19
|
2 to
5
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
64
|
27 to
35
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
2040 to
2042
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
18
|
57 to
67
|
98 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
82
|
33 to
42
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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