Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Thailand submitted an updated NDC in November 2022. It includes an unconditional target of reducing GHG emissions by 30% below business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2030. If the country receives adequate international support for mitigation, the government will increase the target to 40%.¹ The target excludes the country’s LULUCF sink.

Thailand’s NDC is equivalent to 389 MtCO₂e/yr (unconditional), and 333 MtCO₂e/yr (conditional), equating to 14% above and 2% below 2015 emission levels when excluding LULUCF.1 A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require domestic GHG emissions to peak immediately and reach 155–215 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, or a 37–55% reduction below 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.²

In 2015, Thailand published the Climate Policy Master Plan as a national framework for climate change adaptation and low carbon growth, developing mechanisms and tools to address climate change and provide government agencies with a framework for action plans and budgets.³ Thailand is in the process of updating the plan in line with the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals.⁴

Under the Paris Agreement, international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building will be needed for Thailand to close the emissions gap between its fair share and its domestic emissions pathway.

Thailand's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

In 2021, Thailand committed to reaching “carbon neutrality” by 2065 in its Long-term Low Emission Development Strategy (LTS - LEDS) submitted to the UNFCCC.⁵ In 2022, Thailand submitted a revision of its LTS, brought forward the carbon neutrality year to 2050 and committed to achieving net zero GHG emissions by 2065.⁶

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Thailand to reduce its GHG emissions by 78–83% by 2050 below 2015 levels when excluding LULUCF, or 58–75 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.⁷ On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining GHG emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches such as land sinks.

All scenarios foresee some emissions to remain in all sectors by 2050, with the exception of one where the industrial process and energy sectors have negative emissions in the 2050s due to CDR technologies (BECCS – bioenergy with carbon capture and storage).

Decarbonising the energy sector will be key to reducing emissions, as it accounts for more than 70% of the country’s total GHG emissions (mainly CO₂).

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

A transformation of the energy system away from fossil fuels is required to reduce Thailand’s emissions. Ramping up renewable energy in the power sector, coupled with the electrification of industry and transport would set Thailand on a path towards decarbonisation. In 2018, energy consumption was mainly from the transport (39%), industry (36%) and buildings (21%) sectors.⁸

Thailand has a number of energy policies in place: the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2018), the Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP 2018) and the Power Development Plan (PDP 2018). The AEDP 2019–2037 aims to develop appropriate renewable energy production to benefit the social and environmental dimensions of the society. The EEP 2018 lays out core measures to improve energy efficiency in industrial facilities, energy-saving housing promotions, and efficiency improvements for electric appliances. The PDP 2018 focuses on energy security, long-term competitive power generation and reducing emissions by increasing the share of renewable energy.

Thailand is also currently in the process of developing its first-ever National Energy Plan (NEP).

Thailand’s move from coal to natural gas as outlined in its Power Development Plan still locks the country in fossil fuel consumption instead of seeking full decarbonisation with high renewable shares.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Thailand. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	341	370	175 155 to 215	99 87 to 107	67 58 to 75
Relative to reference year in %			-49% -55 to -37%	-71% -75 to -69%	-80% -83 to -78%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	240	258	118 103 to 142	58 20 to 67	13 4 to 31	2061
Relative to reference year in %			-51% -57 to -41%	-76% -92 to -72%	-95% -99 to -87%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Download data as CSV

Government of the Kingdom of Thailand. Thailand’s 2nd Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2022). ↩
Government of the Kingdom of Thailand. Thailand’s 2nd Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2022). ↩
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Climate Change Master Plan of Thailand. (2015). ↩
Thailand Government. Mid-century, Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy Thailand. (2021). ↩
Government of Kingdom of Thailand. Mid-century, Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (2021). ↩
Government of Kingdom of Thailand. Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (Revised Version). (2022). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Thailand Third Biennial Update Report. (2020). ↩

What is Thailand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Thailand's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Thailand's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Thailand's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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