The industry sector in Thailand relies heavily on fossil fuels for its energy needs. Their share of the final energy demand was 48% in 2019, comprising of coal (23%), oil (14%) and natural gas (10%). All scenarios show peaking of fossil energy demand between 2025–2030, and a declining trend after that.
Electrification rate in Thailand’s industrial sector is low. Analysed scenarios show that in a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the share of electricity in industry could increase in the range of 25–28% by 2030 and 49–61% by 2050 from the 2019 level of 22%. All scenarios see a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions to 29–33 MtCO₂/yr by 2030 and 0–4 MtCO₂/yr by 2050 from their 2019 level of 74 MtCO₂/yr.
The Energy Efficiency Plan (2015-2036) includes a target to reduce energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) by 30% by 2036.33,8 The Energy Conservation Promotion Act includes mandatory energy audits in “designated” factories and buildings.34
Thailand has a Voluntary Emission Reduction Programme aiming to reduce 5.28 MtCO₂e per year.14 Industry accounts for 40% of the EEP 2018 energy intensity reduction target, according to which the sector will conserve a cumulative 21,137 ktoe between 2010 and 2037.8
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34 EPPO. Energy Conservation Promotion Act. (2007).
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37 USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Thailand: Updated Biofuel Situation in 2022. (2022).
38 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
Thailandʼs energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Thailandʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
Thailandʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Thailand
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised industry sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 74 | 29 to 33 | 9 to 13 | 0 to 4 | 2042 to 2043 |
Relative to reference year in % | −60 to −55% | −88 to −82% | −101 to −94% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 22 | 25 to 28 | 37 to 42 | 49 to 61 |
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass Percent | 52 | 54 to 64 | 60 to 79 | 64 to 89 |