What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Our Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario suggests that the transport sector could be fully decarbonised by 2065 while accommodating rising energy demand as car ownership grows. Direct CO₂ emissions would increase by 44% from 2023 levels, peaking at around 7.7 MtCO₂e by 2030, before declining rapidly towards full decarbonisation.

Under the HPA scenario, energy consumption in the transport sector would evolve in two distinct growth phases, reflecting the combined effects of rising car ownership and a structural shift in the energy mix. In the first phase, over the next decade, energy consumption would increase by nearly two thirds above 2023 levels to around 120 PJ by 2035. This growth is primarily driven by expanding transport demand and car ownership, alongside a temporary increase in oil consumption by roughly 30% by 2030 relative to 2023, as electrification has yet to scale sufficiently to meet rising demand.

In the second phase beginning around 2040, although transport demand and car ownership would continue to grow and drive further transport energy demand over the subsequent decades, the rapid expansion of electricity that exceeds 50% of the energy mix by 2040 would enable this demand to be met with significantly lower total energy consumption. This would reach 84 PJ in 2040 compared to 120 PJ in 2035. This reduction is primarily due to the superior efficiency of electrified technologies, which are typically two to four times more efficient than fossil fuel-based systems.

The sector could achieve full decarbonisation by around 2065, as accelerated electrification would support rapid decline of oil use after 2030 and oil’s near complete phase-out by 2060.

To align with the HPA scenario, Senegal would need to accelerate electrification across various transport modes. Senegal’s effort in public transport can be reflected in major projects such as the Dakar–AIBD Regional Express Train (TER) and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems.¹1 With the second phase expected to be completed in 2026, the TER is expected to reduce CO₂ emissions by around 17 ktCO₂ annually.²2^,33 As the first fully electric BRT system in Africa, Dakar’s BRT reached full commercial operations in March 2025 and is expected to deliver significant co-benefits, with estimated emissions reductions of approximately 59 ktCO₂e per year (or 1.8 MtCO₂e over a 30-year lifetime), alongside substantial annual reductions in local air pollutants.⁴4 As a cost-effective decarbonisation lever, Senegal should continue scaling these systems and prioritise their integration with electrified feeder bus networks to maximise modal shift and system-wide emissions reductions.

In the passenger vehicle segment, Senegal remains at an early stage of electric vehicle (EV) adoption. It has set a 2030 target of having 37,000 EVs on the roads under the Sustainable Transport and Mobility for Environmental Development (STMED) Project, supported by tax exemptions, international partnerships, and renewable energy initiatives.⁵5 Progress is constrained by limited charging infrastructure which is concentrated in Dakar, high EV costs (2–3 times higher than diesel vehicles), and low public awareness.⁶6 To accelerate EV uptake, Senegal would need to reform untargeted fossil fuel subsides while protecting vulnerable groups, thereby freeing fiscal space for clean transport investments and EV incentives.⁷7^,88 At the same time, it should continue strengthening the current vehicle and fuel standards (e.g. Euro IV-equivalent, low-sulfur fuels), and expanding inspection regimes.⁹9^{, 10}10 Electrification efforts should also be aligned with grid expansion and renewable energy deployment, including under initiatives such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).¹¹11