What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
In 2024, Senegal’s industrial sector accounted for 19% of total emissions excluding LULUCF (5% for industrial energy use and 14% industrial processes). The fossil fuel production sector accounted for an additional 2% of total emissions. The industry sector mostly consists of small- and medium-sized enterprises across the food, manufacturing, chemical and mineral industries.1 The recent 2024 GDP growth is largely driven by a surge in the hydrocarbon sector. 2 In 2023, electricity contributed 42% of the industrial sector’s energy mix, oil 34%, and coal 13% with the remainder coming from biomass (11%).
Senegal's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares include both energy and non-energy use (eg. the use of oil to generate heat for industry use and as a feedstock to produce products such as plastics).
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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Our HPA scenario suggests that the industry sector could be decarbonised around mid-2040s while ensuring growth in industrial output. Achieving this would require scaling up electrification from 42% in 2023 to half of the power mix by 2030 and to over two-thirds by 2040. This would contribute to a coal phase-out by 2040 and the near phase-out of oil by 2060. Hydrogen would be introduced into the mix in the mid-2030s and increase to around 15% by 2050, reaching nearly 20% by 2060 and thereafter. The share of biomass would fall from 11% in 2023 to 4% in 2035.
With the expansion of the oil and gas projects in 2024 and a new refinery expected to operate in 2027, total industrial emissions are likely to increase, risking a delay in decarbonising the sector and increasing the risk and scale of potential stranded assets. 3, 4 Aligning with 1.5°C would require Senegal to shift away from expanding its fossil fuel extractive industry and instead accelerate renewable based electrification on the supply side, while enhancing energy efficiency measures across the demand side.
Senegal's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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Senegal's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathway, excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible path is based on the HPA scenario.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from the HPA scenario for Senegal
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2044
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
200%
|
200%
|
100%
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
53
|
51
|
61
|
73
|
81
|
83
|
80
|
Fuel shares include both energy and non-energy use (eg. the use of oil to generate heat for industry use and as a feedstock to produce products such as plastics).
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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