What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Primary Energy
Senegal’s continued economic growth would double energy demand by 2035 and quadruple it by 2050 relative to 2023 levels at 218 PJ/yr. To ensure a just transition consistent with 1.5°C, Senegal would need to significantly reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, with oil’s share in the energy mix halved to 31% by 2035 and almost fully phased out by 2060 under the Highest Possible Ambition scenario.
Senegal's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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At the same time, renewable energy must scale rapidly to meet rising demand, with a necessary shift in the renewable’s composition. Biomass, which currently meets over one-third of demand, would be almost phased out by 2050. Meanwhile, non-biomass renewables (primarily solar) would expand from around 2% in 2023 to over 60% by 2035, approaching 100% by 2060. This transition would harness Senegal’s strong solar potential while reducing dependence on traditional biomass, which poses significant health risks.
Achieving this pathway would require Senegal to phase down fossil fuel investments and subsidies, while accelerating renewable deployment, electrification, and energy efficiency improvements – supported by international finance mechanisms such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). In parallel, phasing down biomass through clean cooking solutions and universal electricity access would deliver substantial health and environmental co-benefits, directly aligning the energy transition with other sustainable development objectives.