What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power

Decarbonising the power sector

In 2023, 85% of Senegal’s electricity came from oil, while renewables (including biomass) accounted for 14%, with the remaining 1% supplied by coal. Senegal’s electricity mix is heavily reliant on imported heavy fuel oil (HFO), which has significant financial, environmental and health impacts. Currently, the government is pursuing a gas-to-power strategy to replace HFO with natural gas.1 However, this strategy is not 1.5°C aligned and would lead to another long-term carbon-intensive infrastructure lock-in and increase the long-term economic risks.

Senegal's power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Scaling

Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario

Our Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario suggests that the power sector could be decarbonised by 2040 while accommodating increased energy demand driven by economic growth. Meeting this demand would require rapid replacement of oil with renewables (predominantly solar), and the near phase-out of oil by 2035. From 2035 onwards, renewables would account for almost 100% of power generation. Hydrogen would contribute 1-2% of the power mix from 2035 onwards.

To align with the HPA scenario and unlock Senegal’s vast solar potential, the country would need to accelerate renewable energy deployment, electrification, and energy efficiency improvements, supported by both public-private financing and international mechanisms like the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). Accelerating renewable-based electrification and energy efficiency improvement would also in turn support Senegal to achieve universal electricity access.

Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP)

The JETP targets 40% renewable energy capacity by 2030 while ensuring universal electricity access with the first tranche of EUR 2.5 bn in grants and concessional loans.2, 3 Senegal has launched its investment plan under JETP, which focuses on solar energy, energy storage, power grids, and rural electrification.4, 5 As of February 2026, Senegal has the third-largest installed solar capacity in West Africa at 671 MW, following Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire. It aims to add 100 MW of PV capacity and 50 MW of concentrated solar power to align with the JETP 2030 target.6 Senegal has increased the share of renewable energy to around 30% in 2022 of the total installed capacity, though decreased slightly to 25% in 2024.7,8

While current efforts—including the JETP target of 40% renewable capacity by 2030 and the associated Investment Plan—represent important progress, achieving a 1.5°C aligned outcomes would require a more ambitious trajectory, with the renewable share increasing to around 80% by 2030. This could be enabled by gradually redirecting financial support away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy deployment. This would contribute to fossil fuel phase-out, reducing carbon lock-in risks while strengthening fiscal resilience and supporting job creation in emerging clean energy sectors.9,10

Universal electricity access

Achieving universal electricity access is a key policy priority for Senegal while meeting the increasing energy demand that has accompanied its economic growth. As of January 2025, 84% of the population had access to electricity (nearly 100% in urban and around 70% in rural areas), one of the highest rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.11,12

To expand electricity access efficiently, geospatial analysis identifies grid extension and densification as the most cost-effective solution for 75% of the population.13 This primarily includes residents in areas situated near existing medium-voltage lines. For the 15% living in mid-sized clusters that are too far for a grid connection but dense enough for shared infrastructure, mini-grids offer the optimal choice, while standalone solar home systems remain the most viable solution for the remaining isolated households.14

From the final consumption side, Senegal has been expanding clean cooking access. In 2022, only 30% of the population (~5 million people) had access to clean fuels and equipment.15 However, this was primarily in urban areas (over 50% access and with liquid petroleum gas (LPG) as the primary fuel), compared to just 7% in rural areas.16 Accelerating the transition would require scaling renewable-based clean cooking solutions and providing targeted financial support for rural households.17

While Senegal is progressing towards universal electricity access, further policy support and financial incentives would be needed to accelerate the uptake of energy-efficient appliances in residential and commercial buildings. Although energy efficiency measures are advancing, shifting from loan-based schemes to grant-based support could improve affordability and accelerate adoption.18

Senegal's power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit

Section 4: Identify the investment needs

In 2023, Senegal’s installed renewable capacity comprised 34% wind (159 MW) and 56% solar (262 MW), with a total capacity of 470 MW.

By February 2026, Senegal had already increased its installed solar capacity to 671 MW, more than a 50% increase relative to the 2023 levels, reflecting significant progress. However, this still falls short of the trajectory required under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, where solar capacity would need to expand from 262 MW in 2023 to over 21 GW by 2030 and 57 GW by 2035. Achieving this would require annual investments of USD 1.9 billion (2026-2030) and USD 2.6 billion (2031-2035). Meanwhile, wind capacity would need to grow from 159 MW in 2023 to 400 MW by 2030 and 900 MW by 2035, supported by annual investments of USD 38 million (2026–2030) and USD 117 million (2031–2035). The total amount of renewable capacity investment needs for Senegal over the period of 2026 to 2050 is roughly USD 52 billion, out of which 95% will be directed to solar investments.

Section 5: Understanding the investment needs

The investment figures presented here focus exclusively on generation capacities (solar and wind) and therefore reflect only part of the overall system transformation. A fully decarbonised power system requires substantial additional investments in grid infrastructure, storage, and system flexibility. Transmission and distribution expansion, battery storage deployment, and system digitalisation are critical to integrate high shares of variable renewable energy and ensure system reliability. These additional investments can significantly increase total system costs but are necessary to enable the transition

As the key financing channel, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), signed in June 2023, targets 40% installed capacity to be renewables by 2030 and universal electricity access, with total planned financing of approximately €9 billion (~USD 9.5 billion) for 2025–2030. The first tranche of €2.5 billion (~USD 2.65 billion) is provided as grants and concessional loans, with the remainder mobilized through multilateral lenders, private sector investments, green bonds, and climate funds. 19, 20

Senegal’s JETP investment plan allocates approximately €3.3 billion (~34% of total funding and ~USD 3.47 billion) to achieve universal electricity access, and around €1.5 billion (~16% of total funding and ~ 1.57 billion USD) to grid modernization and renewable integration.21 Coupled with targeted investments in solar capacity and energy storage, these measures could increase the share of solar renewables in Senegal’s power mix.

The transition also has important labor market implications: while jobs in fossil fuel-based power generation may decline, new employment opportunities are created in renewable energy development, grid infrastructure, and relates services. A 2022 study found that, by shifting to renewables, Senegal could generate 6700 job years per MWh annually,22 over four times more than what is expected from investing in the fossil gas sector (1500 annual job years per MWh).23 Overall, the power sector transition delivers a broad set of co-benefits that strengthen economic resilience and support sustainable development objectives.

Section 6: Meeting the investment needs

The substantial gap between Senegal’s current installed capacity and the level of investment needed necessitates targeted policies to phase down fossil fuel subsidies and related investments. In 2023, Senegal spent roughly 5% of its annual GDP on energy subsidies or USD 1.32 bn, with 65% directed to petroleum products and 35% to the electricity sector24. Coupled with the government’s support for domestic oil and gas development, reshifting these flows could lower the investment gap for renewable energy sources.

To bridge the ~21 GW gap between 2023 and 2030 and achieve universal and affordable electricity access, Senegal will also require additional international financing, including concessional funds and loans from multilateral development banks, to accelerate renewable energy adoption and achieve universal power access. For example, the African Development Bank provided USD 2 million to its preparation of the JETP investment plan.25

Senegal's renewable electricity investments and capacities

Billion USD / yr

Scaling

Dimension

  • Graph description

    Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time based on the HPA scenario.

    Methodology

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from 1.5°C pathway based on the HPA scenario for Senegal

Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Power sector decarbonised by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
488
161
23
4
0
0
0
2040
Relative to reference year in %
-67%
-95%
-99%
-100%
-100%
-100%
Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Share of unabated coal
%
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Share of unabated gas
%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Share of renewable energy
%
12
86
96
98
98
98
98

The HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world. 
All values are rounded

Cookie settings

Just like other websites, we use cookies to improve and personalize your experience. We collect standard Internet log information and aggregated data to analyse our traffic. Our preference cookies allow us to adapt our content to our audience interests.