What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Future Pathway
Current trends and future pathway
Under a conservative projection based on a purely population-driven trajectory without climate policy intervention, Senegal’s emissions are expected to continue to rise, reaching 33 MtCO₂e by 2030 (98% above 2010 levels) and 36 MtCO₂e by 2035 (120% above 2010), excluding LULUCF. Under a more optimistic projection based on more ambitious climate policies, emissions growth would slow down and peak before 2030, followed by a period of stabilisation. Emissions would reach 29 MtCO₂e by 2030 (76% above 2010 levels) and decline slightly to 28 MtCO₂e by 2035 (69% above 2010), excluding LULUCF.
Senegal’s current trends indicate continued emissions growth, reinforced by the start of offshore oil and gas production in 2024. Real GDP grew by 6.9% in 2024, largely driven by the hydrocarbon sector, following 4.3% growth in 2023.1 IEA analysis has shown that the impact on global emissions from development of natural gas resources on the continent would raise Africa’s cumulative emissions from 3% in 2020 to 3.5% by 2030.2 However this masks the long-term economic consequences of locking-in fossil fuel infrastructure, as investments in gas infrastructure made today cannot recover their costs over their operational lifetime due to the global shift towards cheaper renewable energy and away from more expensive carbon-intensive fossil fuels.
Senegal's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Under our HPA scenario, emissions would peak around 2030, reaching approximately 33 MtCO₂e (94% above 2010 levels), and decline thereafter reaching 30 MtCO₂e by 2035 (76% above 2010) (excluding LULUCF). This trajectory suggests that successful implementation of its climate policies would put Senegal in-line with 1.5ºC in the near-term, although action would likely need to be strengthened through mid-century.
Senegal is cutting emissions with solar, wind and hydro power installation, and energy efficiency improvement and waste recovery measures to decarbonise the industrial sector. Senegal would need substantial international support to advance its renewable energy deployment that can decouple its economic growth from carbon-intensive production, avoid long-term carbon lock-in and ensure energy security dependant on its own abundant renewable resources.
Long term pathway
Senegal was expected to release a long-term strategy at COP28 in 2023, but no announcement has been made since then.3,4 Aligning with 1.5°C would see Senegal’s net GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) reach 24 MtCO2e/yr by 2050 (46% above 2010 levels) and achieving net zero CO2 emissions by mid-2060s. To realise this, fossil fuels would be almost completely phased out by 2060. While Senegal could reach net zero CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) through decarbonising energy use, its total residual emissions could persist beyond 2050 due to the residual CH4 and N2O emissions primarily from agriculture and waste sectors and industrial process emissions (such as from cement). Minimising these residual emissions as far as reasonably possible will be essential to limit reliance on uncertain international climate finance and carbon dioxide removal technologies and ensure a credible pathway to overall net zero.
While the Highest Possible Ambition scenario meets global net zero CO₂ emissions before 2050, followed by net zero GHG in the 2060s, this averages out globally and does not mean each country would reach net zero at the same time. This is why Senegal is still emitting GHGs beyond 2050 – the emissions are compensated for by countries that have the capacity to decarbonise faster and reach net negative emissions by 2050.
Senegal's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathway. The 1.5°C compatible pathway is based on the HPA scenario and shows total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks for Senegal. Benchmarks are based on the HPA scenario. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2010
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
17
|
28
|
33
|
30
|
28
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
94%
|
76%
|
65%
|
41%
|
41%
|
41%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
4
|
9
|
14
|
12
|
10
|
5
|
2
|
-1
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
250%
|
200%
|
150%
|
25%
|
-50%
|
-125%
|
||
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
5
|
2 to
14
|
0 to
15
|
-2 to
15
|
-5 to
12
|
-2 to
11
|
-1 to
10
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-60 to
180%
|
-100 to
200%
|
-140 to
200%
|
-200 to
140%
|
-140 to
120%
|
-120 to
100%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
-8
|
-30 to
-18
|
-30 to
-14
|
-30 to
-13
|
-29 to
-12
|
-26 to
-13
|
-24 to
-14
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
275 to
125%
|
275 to
75%
|
275 to
63%
|
263 to
50%
|
225 to
63%
|
200 to
75%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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