Urbanisation and growth in GDP per capita in Myanmar have resulted in an increased motorisation rate. This is particularly evident in the major metropolitan areas of Yangon and Mandalay. Yangon, once a city of busses, has seen a substantial increase in passenger vehicles and motorcycles. Similarly, Mandalay, once a city of bicycles, has seen motorcycles become the dominant form of transport. With this has come an increase in direct emissions from the transport sector, increasing from 4.5 to 6.3 MtCO₂/yr between 2007 and 2019.
While Myanmar makes no mitigation commitments for the transport sector in their NDC, the government does acknowledge the GHG reduction benefit of investing in public transportation infrastructure and the need to end the use of fossil fuel vehicles by 2035 or earlier. On the latter, they claim to have already phased out 200,000 old, highly inefficient vehicles. Nonetheless, the 2015 Master Energy Plan sees transport energy consumption more than doubling between 2012 and 2030 and continuing to rely almost entirely on petrol and diesel.,
In contrast, 1.5°C compatible pathways see the transportation sector’s energy mix undergoing significant changes driven by an electrification of the sector, up to 7% by 2030. By 2050, electricity could meet close to 40% of the sector’s energy needs. Some models see a high deployment of hydrogen and this fuel could play a significant role by 2050. As a result, direct carbon emissions from transport, 6 MtCO₂/yr in 2019, would decline by 42-43% by 2030 and Myanmar could achieve a decarbonised transportation sector by 2056.