What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

The Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario indicates that electrification of Mexican transport will be central to aligning the sector with 1.5°C. In the scenario, electricity supplies 34% of the mix by 2035. This continues to accelerate out to 2050, when electrification peaks at 91%. This would be supplemented with biofuels (5% in 2050) and synthetic fuels (4% in 2050). Achieving the electrification rate under the HPA scenario involves a two-pronged approach: electrifying private road transport through an electric vehicle (EV) rollout and expansion and electrification of public transport.

The launch of Mexico’s domestically produced, fully electric ‘Olinia’ is expected to drive EV sales when it becomes available in 2027. A core aim of the government’s support for the Olinia is to provide an affordable EV to Mexican citizens, situating the car as both a key part of environmental, industrial and socio-economic policy.³3 This is in line with President Sheinbaum’s preference for electromobility as a means to cut transport emissions, with the government targeting 50% of vehicle sales in 2030 and 100% by 2035 to be electric or hybrid.⁴4^,55^,66^,77 However, while there has been a significant increase in EV and hybrid EV sales in recent years (almost 10% of new cars in 2025), the majority have been hybrids which do not deliver the necessary emissions reductions to align with 1.5°C.⁸8^,99 Uptake of fully electric vehicles can only occur if it is supported by a country-wide rollout of charging infrastructure. Just 7.5% of Mexico’s charging stations are publicly accessible, representing a bottleneck to EV uptake.¹⁰10 Analysis of the Mexican context has found that financial incentives for rural deployment and streamlined permitting processes can speed up the rollout, particularly outside urban centres.¹¹11 In addition to meeting charging needs, robust infrastructure can reduce non-physical barriers to uptake such as range anxiety.¹²12

The electrification rate seen in the HPA scenario dampens growth in the transport sector’s final energy demand. This is due to the high energy efficiency of EVs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, as well as the increased use of public transport which would occur in a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Compared to 2023 levels, final demand would drop by 18% by 2035 and by 24% by 2040. As the efficiency gains from electrification taper off as fossil fuels are increasingly phased out, final demand would increase, though still remaining 16% lower in 2050 compared to 2023.

Around 81% of Mexico’s population live in urban areas.¹³13 Inefficient urban development has led to low-income populations undertaking long journeys to their jobs with inadequate public transport, while middle-income workers rely on private transport which aggravates congestion and air quality.¹⁴14 1.5°C compatible climate policy is inherently connected to more liveable cities. Restructuring urban areas through improved zoning and public transport corridors which connect these zones together can reduce travel times and emissions while raising quality of life and economic activity. The Mexico City Metro and train route between Mexico City and Pachuca are positive examples of fully electrified public transport.¹⁵15^{, 16}16 Building on these successes can allow Mexico to decarbonise its transport sector in line with broader sustainable development goals.