What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Primary Energy
Primary energy
Oil and gas together accounted for roughly 85% of Mexico’s primary energy supply in 2023 (split about equally), with coal contributing another 5% for power generation and industry. Given the high share of fossil fuels, aligning with 1.5°C would see Mexico rapidly electrify its primary energy supply. Non-biomass renewables made up just 4.5%, with this share split relatively equally between wind, solar, and hydropower.
Mexico's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, the share of non-biomass renewables in Mexico’s primary energy supply would rise to 26% by 2030 and 59% by 2035. This would be driven almost entirely by electricity produced by wind and solar, which form the backbone of a 1.5°C compatible energy system in Mexico. The share of wind and solar effectively peaks in 2050 at 92%, with small increases thereafter. Biomass would meet the remaining energy needs primarily in transport and industry, supporting decarbonisation in areas where electrification is challenging (e.g. aviation and long-distance trucking).
It should be noted that these modelling results rely on a significant build out of wind and solar capacity well beyond the levels so far seen in Mexico. Due to the centralised nature of Mexico’s grid, which was built to transport electricity generated from fossil fuels, massive upgrades to transmission and distribution infrastructure will be required. These tend to take longer to permit and build than generation facilities and, as a result, makes achieving the 2030 target difficult, particularly due to insufficient action in recent years. If Mexico cannot roll out wind and solar in line with its 2030 benchmark, faster and larger-scale action will be needed post-2030.
Although primary energy consumption increases out to 2050 and beyond, consumption would decrease in the near term under the HPA scenario. This reflects efficiency gains resulting from rapid electrification. Electrification technologies are 2-4 times more efficient than their fossil counterparts, allowing final energy demand in 2035 to fall by 11% below 2023 levels even as the economy grows.1 Efficiency gains taper off after 2035 as the share of fossils left in the system decreases and energy demand accelerates between 2040 and 2060.
Achieving the transformation foreseen in the HPA scenario requires a fundamental rethinking of Mexico and Pemex’s strategic energy planning. Pemex plans to invest USD 90 bn in developing oil and gas infrastructure between 2025-2030. These investments would lead to the opening of 2000 new oil wells and 1000 new gas wells, along with maintenance of over 3000 existing wells.2 These investments need to be redirected towards wind and solar if Mexico is to meet its Paris Agreement obligations.