What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, electricity’s share in the mix rises to 74% by 2035, replacing the shares of biomass and oil. Biomass is phased down faster than oil (84% drop between 2023-2035), indicating the importance of phasing out biomass from a health and socio-economic development perspective. Biomass continues to be widely used in Mexico’s rural areas as well as in middle- and low-income households, leading to negative health outcomes due to exposure to pollutants. Women in particular are affected due to the use of biomass as cooking fuel.¹1 Electric cooking options such as induction stoves can replace biomass for cooking. Due to their higher energy efficiency, especially when combined with solar power, electric cooking options also help to reduce final energy demand by 12.5% between 2023-2035.²2 In remote rural communities where grid connections are limited, mini grids can expand clean energy access in line with the HPA scenario.

Aligning the buildings sector with the HPA scenario would involve oil being phased out by 2040 while biomass is phased out by 2050. Meanwhile, electrification reaches 94% by 2050, supplemented by heat. There are over 11 million gas water heaters in Mexico compared to slightly under 2 million solar heaters.³3 In addition to district heat or renewables-based CHP, rolling out solar heaters, heat pump water heaters and rooftop solar can meet buildings energy demand sustainably. Electric technologies can be paired with building retrofits to maximise their potential and increase cost savings for the consumer. Mexico’s buildings have high technical potential to improve their energy efficiency. Aside from retrofitting the existing buildings stock, implementing green standards can ensure new builds meet higher efficiency standards.⁴4^,55