What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Future Pathway
Current trends and future pathways
Under current policies, Mexico’s emissions will climb to 853–882 MtCO2e by 2035 (excl. LULUCF), or 15–19% above 2015 levels. This remains well above Mexico’s unconditional NDC target, which aims to reduce emissions by 20-32% below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF).1 Aligning with its own targets will require a significant ratcheting up of ambition.
Mexico's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Neither Mexico’s current policies nor its NDC target are aligned with what is required under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario to limit overshoot and bring emissions back well below 1.5ºC by the end of the century. The HPA scenario would see Mexico reduce its emissions to 390 MtCO2e by 2035 (excl. LULUCF). This equates to 47% below 2015 levels.
Despite extremely favourable conditions for wind and solar, years of fossil fuel friendly policies have hindered the renewables rollout. The current administration’s Mexico Plan outlines its intention to lift Mexico into the world’s top ten economies by 2030.2 To do so, it aims to increase domestic energy production, thus reducing reliance on imports. Yet Mexico’s continued heavy emphasis on fossil fuel production fails to meet this goal sustainably. Without a course correction, Mexico’s emissions will continue to increase.
Long term pathway
Mexico has committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050.3 While this is a positive step, it is critical to submit an updated long-term strategy which demonstrates how Mexico intends to meet its net zero target.4
The Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario shows the importance of reaching global net zero CO2 emissions before 2050 and net zero GHG emissions by 2060. Achieving net zero will require CDR to compensate for remaining residual emissions (for instance in agriculture or waste).
The HPA scenario also shows the need to reach net-negative GHG emissions to bring temperatures back down well below 1.5ºC as fast as possible. In the HPA, global net-negative emissions are sustained over 2060–2100, but in some countries this regime of net-negative emissions appears earlier. In Mexico, emissions excluding LULUCF reach net zero by 2045 and then become net-negative.
The exact distribution of a future net-negative emissions regime, both in terms of where CDR is deployed to achieve net-negative emissions and how this CDR is financed, is an active area of research. We are conducting further research on this presently. Our current results for this net-negative regime should be seen as preliminary and subject to further revision.
Rather than focusing on this regime, we highlight the need for Mexico to reach net zero CO2 by 2040 and net zero GHGs by 2045. What happens after reaching net zero will be a function of global and national policy responses and international collaboration on CDR and technological progress in scaling removals. This will be investigated further in future stages of the project.
Mexico's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathway. The 1.5°C compatible pathway is based on the HPA scenario and shows total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks for Mexico. Benchmarks are based on the HPA scenario. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
742
|
735
|
623
|
390
|
155
|
-45
|
-35
|
-23
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-16%
|
-47%
|
-79%
|
-106%
|
-105%
|
-103%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
468
|
442
|
366
|
186
|
-27
|
-176
|
-153
|
-131
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-22%
|
-60%
|
-106%
|
-138%
|
-133%
|
-128%
|
||
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
553
|
548
|
||||||
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
||||||||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
280
|
255
|
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|
Relative to reference year in %
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All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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