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Kazakhstan Sectors

What is Kazakhstanʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Transportation GHG emissions accounted for 15% of Kazakhstan’s national GHG emissions in 2017 (excl. LULUCF).5 Transport direct CO₂ emissions have increased by 24% since 2010. Fossil fuels accounted for 95% of the transport sector’s final energy mix in 2019, almost entirely from oil. The remaining 5% was supplied by electricity.

Across analysed pathways, direct CO₂ emissions from transport are eliminated by around 2050. This is supported by rapid electrification, reaching 21-40% by 2030 and 67-90% by 2050. Pathways that show lower penetration of electricity in the transport sector have higher shares of hydrogen or biofuels, reaching 25-70% and 3-14% of the transport energy mix by 2050, respectively. Under its carbon neutrality scenario, Kazakhstan’s Doctrine to achieve carbon neutrality expects electricity to account for 72% of transport energy demand by 2060, with a further 11% from biofuels and 8% from hydrogen.

As an important land bridge connecting European and Asian trade, Kazakhstan accounts for more than 80% of Central Asian rail freight activity.10 About one-quarter of Kazakhstan’s railway network is electrified.16 Rail also accounts for the majority of freight transport in Kazakhstan (about 60%); however, road projects account for about 80% of planned and under construction transport infrastructure investments.10 While the current share of electric vehicles (EVs) in Kazakhstan is low, the government has adopted some policies to support EV adoption and manufacturing.11

1 Republic of Kazakhstan. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution – Submission of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 2016.

2 Climate Action Tracker. Kazakhstan. September 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.

3 Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Doctrine (strategy) of achieving carbon neutrality of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2060. 2021.

4 Assel Satubaldina. Tokayev Announces Kazakhstan’s Pledge to Reach Carbon Neutrality by 2060. The Astana Times. 2020.

5 Republic of Kazakhstan. Fourth Biennial Report of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2019.

6 Official Information Source of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan presents plans to achieve carbon neutrality. 2022.

7 IEA & EU4Energy. Clean Household Energy Consumption in Kazakhstan: A Roadmap. 2020.

8 IEA. Kazakhstan 2022 Energy Sector Review. 2022.

9 International Carbon Action Partnership. Kazakhstan Emissions Trading System. 2022.

10 International Transport Forum. Enhancing Connectivity and Freight in Central Asia. 2019.

11 Tanzila Khan, Sumati Kohli, Zifei Yang & Josh Miller. Zero-emission vehicle deployment: Europe, Middle East, and Central & South Asia. 2022..

12 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). Preprint at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5175154 (2021).

13 President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Concept for transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Green Economy. Preprint at policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Concept%20on%20Transition%20towards%20Green%20Economy%20until%202050%20%28EN%29.pdf (2013).

14 Pedro Plowman. Kazakhstan has launched a massive project to plant one million trees every day until 2026. Medium. 2020.

15 Lloyds Bank. The economic context of Kazakhstan. 2022.

16 CIA. The World Factbook: Kazakhstan. 2023.

Kazakhstanʼs energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050200300
SSP1 High CDR reliance
2019203020402050200300
Low energy demand
2019203020402050200300
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050200300
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biomass
  • Biogas
  • Biofuel
  • Electricity
  • Heat
  • Hydrogen

Kazakhstanʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
510152019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kazakhstan

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised transport sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
16
10
3 to 5
1
2047 to 2052
Relative to reference year in %
−41 to −37%
−83 to −67%
−95 to −94%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
5
21 to 40
49 to 80
67 to 90
Share of biofuels
Percent
0
1 to 3
2 to 9
3 to 14
Share of hydrogen
Percent
0
4 to 22
5 to 62
25 to 70

Footnotes