Emissions profile
In 2019, the energy sector was Jamaica’s highest emitting sector, accounting for 49% of total GHG emissions, followed by the agriculture sector with a share of around 41% of total emissions. Waste and industrial processes play a more marginal role in Jamaica’s domestic emissions.3
As illustrated in Jamaica’s Biennial Update Report (BUR), there was a downward trend in greenhouse gas emissions between 2006 and 2012.4 There is a lack of clarity on emissions from the land use, land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) which are presented as a sink or a source depending on the dataset. In all cases, however, the LULUCF sector takes up only a small share of the country’s total emissions. In its NDC, the Jamaican government projects the LULUCF sector to be a carbon sink, estimating that it will absorb -1 MtCO₂e by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario.
Note: there are significant discrepancies between Jamaica’s reported emissions from 2016 in its Biennial Update Report, reflected in the dataset used in this analysis PRIMAP-Hist, and Jamaica’s Long Term Strategy Recommendations based on Climate Watch GHG emissions dataset.5-7
1 Ministry of Energy. National Renewable Energy Policy 2009 – 2030 … Creating a Sustainable Future. Energy Policy. (2010).
2 Cooper, R. Jamaica to run on 50% renewable energy by 2030. Climate Action. (2018).
3 World Bank. Assessment of Jamaica’s Climate Change Mitigation Potential and Implications for its Updated NDC: Sectoral Modelling and Analysis. (2020).
4 Government of Jamaica. Government of Jamaica Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation Biennial Update Report of Jamaica. (2016).
5 World Bank & IBRD. Jamaica’s Long-Term Climate Change Strategy Recommendations. (2021).
6 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). (2021)
doi:10.5281/zenodo.5175154.
7 Climate Watch. Jamaica Climate Change Data. Climate Watch. (2022).
8 IEA. World Energy Balances 2019. (2021).
9 Government of Jamaica. Update of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica. (2020).
10 OECD. Taxing Energy Use for Sustainable Development – Jamaica. (2018).
11 Government of Jamaica. National Policy for the Trading of Carbon Credits 2010-2030. (2010).
12 NDC Support Facility. Development of 2050 Low Emissions and Climate Resilience Strategy in Jamaica. (2021).
13 Note that there are significant discrepancies between Jamaica’s reported emissions from 2016 in its Biennial Update Report, reflected in the dataset used in this analysis PRIMAP-Hist, and Jamaica’s Long Term Strategy Recommendations based on Climate Watch GHG emissions dataset. As Jamaica’s updated NDC only covers the energy and LULUCF sectors, we have assumed an emissions growth for the IPPU and Waste sectors following the last 10 years trend, and for the agriculture sector, that the share of emissions in 2030 remains the same as the current share in total GHG emissions.
14 Ministry of Science, Energy & Technology. Integrated Resource Plan A 20 Year Roadmap to Sustain and Enable Jamaica’s Electricity Future. (2018).
15 Historical reported emissions for the agriculture sector are deviating significantly from the PRIMAP-Hist – Country reported 2021 dataset to other third party reported GHG – such as the CAIT Climate Watch dataset used in recent studies to inform the development of Jamaica’s Long Term Strategy. On the total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in 2017 for example, the difference is of around 60%.
In order to assess Jamaica’s NDC we have used the PRIMAP-Hist Country Reported dataset, also used for the estimation of the 1.5°C compatible benchmarks. As Jamaica’s updated NDC covers only the energy sector and the LULUCF sector, we have assumed an emissions growth for the IPPU and Waste sectors following the last 10 years trend, and for the agriculture sector that the share of emissions in 2030 remains the same as the current share over total GHG emissions.
16 Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation. Third National Communication (Issue October).
Jamaicaʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
By sector
- Combustion
- Fugitive emissions
- Other
- Agriculture
- Waste
- Industry (processes)
- LULUCF
By gas
- CO₂
- N₂O
- CH₄
- Other
Sectors by gas
Energy
Agriculture
Industry (processes)
Energy system
The current main driver of the energy sector emissions is fuel combustion activities, accounting for around 99% of the 2019 energy-related emissions, mostly from the power, industry and transport sectors.8 Decrease in emissions from the mining/bauxite sector was mostly due to the impact of global economic downturn resulting in lower productivity of the industry.
In 2010, Jamaica relied on imported petroleum for 91% of its energy needs. The National Energy Policy 2009–2030 lays out plans to promote renewable energy and fuel diversification.1 The policy includes a target of increasing the renewable energy share to 30% by 2030 and an overall target of 20% of energy from renewables, with estimates showing that it could increase to 50%. In 2019, around 11% of electricity generation came from renewable energy sources.8 In 2019, oil was the primary energy source, with an 82% share, followed by gas, biomass, coal and non-biomass renewables.
The energy sector faces many challenges in reducing GHG emissions largely due to an inefficient power sector.3 The government is taking action to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions, including through the National Energy Policy 2009–2030.1 In 2009, however, the government opted for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as the alternative for energy diversification.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
NDC target
Unconditional NDC target
- 25.4% reduction relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) emissions scenario for 2030 (reduction of 1.83MtCO₂e for a target emissions level of 5.37MtCO₂e in 2030).9
Conditional NDC target
- 28.5% reduction relative to a business-as-usual emissions scenario for 2030 (reduction of 2.05MtCO₂e for a target emissions level of 5.15MtCO₂e in 2030)
Long-term target
Jamaica is currently developing a Long-Term Emissions Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy (LTS) for 2050.
Sector coverage
EnergyWasteAgricultureLULUCFGreenhouse gas coverage
CO₂CH₄HFCsN₂OSectoral targets
Energy
Emissions reduction target:
- At least 20% of the energy supply to come from renewable sources by 2030.2
Industry
- Increased cogeneration efficiency: “efficient combined heat and power steam generators are deployed for alumina production, gradually increasing CHP efficiency for the industry to 90% in 2030.”16
Power
- Jamaica’s Integrated Resource Plan foresees the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to be 31% in 2030 and 49% in 2037.14
Note: the Integrated Resource Plan is currently being updated.
Transport
- Introduction of 136 liquified natural gas-fuelled public transport buses serving St. James Parish and Montego Bay by 2025.
Buildings
- All schools and hospitals to change from linear, fluorescent light bulbs to energy-efficient lighting by 2030.