What is Israel's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
The share of fossil gas in the power sector has in the past ten years grown steadily, and gas has overtaken coal as the most prominent fuel. In 2019, 95% of Israel’s power sector relied on fossil fuels, two thirds on gas and one third on coal. Only 5% of Israel’s power was generated from renewables.
Israel’s commitment to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2026 is an important step in the right direction. However, the government’s plans to increase the use of gas to replace coal are not in line with the 1.5°C temperature goal. Also the current target to increase the share of renewable energy to 40% by 20301 falls well short of the 68–83% share needed to be Paris Agreement compatible.
Israel aims to reduce power sector emissions by 30% by 2030 below 2015 levels. Our analysis of 1.5˚C compatible pathways shows that carbon intensity of the sector would need to fall by 77–81% by 2030 below 2015 levels.
The government currently aims to reduce power sector emissions by 85% below 2015 by 2050, while 1.5°C compatible pathways show that the sector could be fully decarbonised already by 2040.2 A full decarbonisation of the sector will require gas to be phased out by 2040, and the share of renewable energy to reach 100% by 2050. The government need to more strongly commit to moving the power sector from fossil fuels to renewable energy to get on track to meeting the country’s climate commitments.
Israel's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Israel's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Israel to be on the order of USD 2 to 6 billion by 2030 and 4 to 9 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Israel's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Israel
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
480
|
90 to
111
|
0 to
5
|
-17 to
0
|
2040 to
2041
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-81 to
-77%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
-104 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
30
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
64
|
9 to
14
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
5
|
68 to
83
|
98 to
99
|
99 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
95
|
17 to
32
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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