What is Israel's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 1 December 2022

1.5°C compatible pathways

2030 Ambition

In its NDC that was updated in 2021, Israel commits to reducing its emissions by 27% by 2030 relative to 2015 levels, including LULUCF.1

A 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions reduction target for Israel would be 37% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF. The majority of emissions reductions will need to occur in the power and transport sectors, as these are the biggest emitters in Israel. The energy sector as a whole accounted for more than 76% of Israel’s total GHG emissions in 2019.2

To do its fair share of global emissions reduction efforts in line with the Paris Agreement, Israel would need to provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Israel's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

Israel intends to cut its emissions by 85% below 2015 levels by 2050 (including LULUCF emissions), or an emissions level of 12 MtCO₂e by 2050.3 To be 1.5°C compatible, Israel’s emissions would need to be 78–86% below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF, or in absolute terms around 11–18 MtCO₂e in 2050. As land sinks are negligible in Israel, the country will need to either reduce emissions even beyond this level or rely on carbon dioxide removal approaches to reach net zero GHG. Our analysis indicates that CO₂ emissions could reach zero by 2050 under 1.5°C compatible pathways.

Israel's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

Considering the energy sector’s 78% share of Israel’s total emissions, its decarbonisation will be critical to meeting Israel’s obligations under the Paris Agreement. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that renewables could account for 29–55% of the primary energy mix by 2030, with this share increasing to 84–92% by 2050.

The use of fossil fuels needs to decline at the same time as the share of renewables increases. In 2019, fossil fuels accounted for 97% of Israel’s primary energy mix. 1.5°C compatible pathways suggest that this share needs to drop to 45–69% by 2030 and to 5–7% by 2050.

Israel's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Israel. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
80
82
51
44 to 55
27
19 to 29
16
11 to 18
Relative to reference year in %
-37%
-45 to -32%
-66%
-76 to -64%
-80%
-86 to -77%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
63
62
42
32 to 44
16
7 to 22
6
-0 to 12
2062
2050 to 2070
Relative to reference year in %
-33%
-48 to -30%
-74%
-89 to -65%
-91%
-100 to -81%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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