Power sector in 2030
Indonesia’s power system is heavily reliant on coal, with an emissions intensity of almost 760 gCO₂/kWh in 2019. Given the important role of power in decarbonisation, all analysed pathways consider that it needs to decarbonise rapidly. This requires a significant scale up of renewable power technologies, including solar and wind power, as well as dispatchable renewables, such as geothermal and hydro power. The share of all these renewable technologies together would need to reach 70-76% by 2030 and 99–100% by 2050, starting from 17% in 2019. Regional benchmarks indicate a share of renewables up to 84% by 2030 in South-East Asia. This stands in contrast with Indonesia’s long-term strategy to reach net zero by 2060, with a power mix from its long term Paris compatible scenario” (LCCP) of renewables (43%), coal (38%), natural gas (10%) and BECCS (8%).
The most readily available technologies for decarbonisation at Indonesia’s disposal are renewables. A stronger push for renewables uptake can result in emissions intensity dropping to 110-160 gCO₂/kWh as early as 2030 and allow Indonesia to engage on a 1.5°C compatible pathway without having to rely on the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as DACCS or BECCS, that are expected to play a role in GHG mitigation of power sector. Indonesia’s power system regulation is slowly transforming but faster action is required to achieve these emissions reductions.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The full decarbonisation of the power sector is achieved in 1.5°C compatible pathways from as early as 2035, by phasing out of coal by 2030, followed by gas by around 2035. In all analysed pathways, gas use peaks in 2030 and declines thereafter with complete phase-out reached in almost all analysed pathways by 2050. Oil is phased out between 2025 and 2040 in most pathways.
Indonesia aims to rely on CCS technologies coupled with fossil fuels, targeting in its long-term plan to equip 76% of the coal power plant with CCS. Given the proven emissions intensity of these non-yet available at scale and costly technologies, it would be a safer path to engage on fostering the development of renewable technologies in the country.,