In Indonesia, the industrial sector makes up 37% of direct CO₂ emissions and has the highest share in primary energy demand at 36.4% in 2019.23,24 While its energy demand has been volatile since 2008, it has steadily increased since 1990 at an annual rate of 6.4% reaching 36% in 2019.24 Analysed scenarios show that in 1.5°C compatible pathway share of electricity in industry will increase in the range of 18-20% by 2030 and 45-56% by 2050 from 2019 level of 14%. All scenarios see a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions to 75-79 MtCO₂/yr by 2030, and 14-15 MtCO₂/yr by 2050 from 2019 level of 180 MtCO₂/yr. This decline will mostly be driven by increased energy efficiency.
The sectoral primary energy demand is heavily dominated by fossil fuels (75% in 2019), comprising of coal 42%, oil 11% and natural gas 22% in 2019. All scenarios show peaking of fossil energy demand by 2025-2030, and a declining trend after that to reach 14-54% share by 2050.
The share of industrial process emissions is 6.3% of total emissions excluding LULUCF (59 MtCO₂e/yr in 2019), increasing since 1990.25 All scenarios except one show a declining trend of process emissions from 2025, reaching up to -3 to 57 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.
Energy efficiency improvements in Indonesia constitute an important intervention for industrial energy conservation as better energy efficiency prevented 8% of additional energy use between 2010 and 2018.26 Additionally, structural change of the economic activities from energy intensive manufacturing to the less energy intensive service sector has contributed significantly to emissions reduction, particularly in the period 2014-18.26 As a part of industrial emissions intensity reduction policy Indonesia is set to expand its biofuel blending mandate beyond transport sector for industries also.
1 Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).
2 Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050. Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050). (2021).
3 Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Low Carbon Development : A Paradigm Shift Towards a Green Economy in Indonesia. (2019).
4 Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. CAT Climate Governance Series. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).
5 Climate Action Tracker. Coal Phase Out and Energy Transition Pathways. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).
6 Climate Action Tracker. How a COVID-19 recovery with less coal could benefit Indonesia. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).
7 Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. September 2020 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).
8 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).
9 BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. (2021).
10 OEC. Indonesia. Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). (2019).
11 Rahman, D. F. PLN pledges carbon neutrality by 2050 . The Jakarta Post (2021).
12 Development Bank, A. Indonesia Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map – Update. (2020).
13 Kharina, A. et al. Biofuels Policy in Indonesia: Overview and Status Report. (2016).
14 Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. CAT Scaling Up Climate Action Series. Climate Action Tracker. (2019).
15 World Resource Institute. CAIT Paris Contributions Map – Explore Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).
16 NDC-Indonesia. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution-Republic of Indonesia. (2021).
17 Hans Nicholas Jong. Indonesia says no new coal plants from 2023 (after the next 100 or so). (2021).
18 Ministry of Energy Mineral Resources Republic of Indonesia. Indonesia’s Effort to Phase Out and Rationalise Its Fossil-Fuel Subsidies A self report on the G-20 peer review of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption in Indonesia. (2019).
19 Ministry of Research. and H. E. Indonesia Center of excellence for ccs and ccus. 2017.
20 Reuters. Indonesia carbon capture storage projects could need $500 mln, official says. Reuters. (2021).
21 Fuentes, U. et al. Decarbonising South & South East Asia – Country Profile – Indonesia. (2019).
22 Climate Action Tracker. Paris Agreement Compatible Sectoral Benchmarks: Elaborating the decarbonisation roadmap. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).
23 Climate Transparency. Indonesia. Climate Transparency Country Profile. (2021).
24 IEA. Indonesia. International Energy Agency. (2021).
25 PIK. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. (2021).
26 IEA. E4 Country Profile: Energy Efficiency Indonesia. (2021).
27 Saputra, G. & Simanjuntak, U. The Need for Supportive Policy for the Indonesian Electric Vehicle Development. (2021).
28 ICCT. The hidden cost of Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate to consumers. International Council on Clean Transportation. (2017).
29 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
30 Fossil fuel with CCS in the power sector are very likely to emit at the very least a tenth of the average emissions compared with an installation without CCS and therefore cannot be considered a zero or low-carbon technology. Costs of CCS in the power sector have remained stagnant over the last decade. CCS technologies in the power sector also have a non-trivial sustainability footprint in terms of increased water use, higher fossil resource demands and consequential mining and production footprint, and in general do not address local air pollution concerns. The CCS technologies are also uncertain regarding security of storage over very long periods of time and the need for legal structure to allow it to happen.
Indonesiaʼs energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biomass
- Biogas
- Biofuel
- Electricity
- Heat
- Hydrogen
Indonesiaʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
Indonesiaʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Indonesia
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised industry sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 180 | 75 to 79 | 36 | 14 to 15 | 2046 to 2050 |
Relative to reference year in % | −59 to −56% | −80% | −92% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 14 | 18 to 20 | 31 to 40 | 45 to 56 |
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass Percent | 25 | 35 to 47 | 47 to 87 | 57 to 96 |