Indonesia’s updated NDC reiterates its 2015 target pledges stated in its 2015 NDC of an unconditional emissions reduction of 29% below business as usual (BAU) levels, and a conditional contribution of 41% below BAU by 2030.
Indonesia’s conditional NDC would result in an increase in GHG emissions excluding land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) of 99-100% above 2015 levels by 2030. Modelled pathways show that, to be 1.5°C compatible, emissions excluding LULUCF need to decrease 30-48% below 2015 levels by 2030 (between 435-581 MtCO₂e per year until 2030). Achieving an emissions sink from the LULUCF sector however is critical to achieving a Paris Agreement compliant target, corresponds to a reduction of around 84-89% below 2030 including LULUCF or 63-75% below 2015 levels.
Indonesia will very likely meet its NDC targets under current policies. This is primarily due to the very high emissions baseline scenario used for the basis of the NDC target definition meaning that the country will likely achieve its targets without any additional efforts while still doubling its emissions (excl. LULUCF).
While Indonesia’s current policies would allow for emissions far above from its “fair share” range as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, the country will need to receive international support to close the gap between its fair share and domestic emissions pathway.
Long term pathway
Indonesia is one of the few developing countries to publish its ‘long-term strategy for low carbon and climate resilience 2050’. While it aims at reaching net zero by 2060, the level of emissions reduction under its “long term Paris compatible scenario” (LCCP) remain insufficient compared to analysed 1.5°C compatible models here.
According to Bappenas, Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency, a more ambitious emission reduction pathway leading to net zero emissions by 2045 would be economically and socially beneficial.
1.5°C compatible pathways show that by 2050, GHG emissions excluding LULUCF could be reduced to 150-216 MtCO₂e/yr or 74-82% below 2015 levels, driven primarily through emissions reductions in the energy sector, but also in waste and agriculture. The remaining emissions would need to be balanced through the use of negative emissions such as land sinks up to -216 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050. This stands in contrasts with Indonesia’s long-term strategy which would still allow emissions to increase by 2050, by around 1% compared to 2015 levels.
Avoiding the need for negative emissions at this scale would need faster decarbonisation in the other energy-using sectors. In addition, reaching larger shares of renewables earlier would reduce reliance on negative emissions technologies in the second half of the century under a 1.5°C domestic pathway. The land use sector is important in Indonesia, and emissions from LULUCF could be brought to zero by around 2030 and become an emission sink thereafter leading to net zero GHG including LULUCF being achieved from around 2040.