What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Buildings

Decarbonising the buildings sector

India’s buildings sector is a smaller but steadily growing contributor to national emissions, driven by urbanisation, rising incomes, and increasing cooling demand. Buildings emitted about 125 MtCO₂ in 2023 (5% of total emissions). This is relatively modest compared to power and industry, but building emissions are expected to grow as floor space and appliance ownership expand.1

In 2023, biomass met over half of buildings’ energy demand, while electricity accounted for about 23%. Fossil gas use is minimal, though coal meets 5% of demand and oil 17%. This distribution reflects the dual challenge in India’s energy landscape: despite achieving 100% electricity access, the lack of a stable and reliable supply, coupled with limited penetration of modern electrical appliances at the household level, perpetuates the continued reliance on biomass, coal, and oil in the buildings sector.

India's  energy mix in the buildings sector

petajoule per year

Scaling

Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. 

Electrification deepens substantially in the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, with electricity rising to roughly 84% of final energy by 2050 while biomass declines and fossil fuels are nearly phased out, adding to the sector’s overall efficiency. This reflects continued electrification of appliances, cooling, and water heating, alongside a shift away from traditional fuels.

Buildings energy demand would essentially double, from about 8270 PJ in 2023 to 16800 PJ in 2050. Similar to business-as-usual scenarios, 1.5°C compatible scenarios project socioeconomic changes in India such as population growth, urban expansion, and rising temperatures. All of these factors will lead to rising energy demand in the buildings sector. However, efficiency improvements including high-efficiency air conditioners, better building envelopes, and stronger appliance standards, can help to limit demand growth relative to baseline trends.

Despite rising energy use, emissions decline sharply under the HPA scenario to about 34 MtCO₂ by 2050, and emissions intensity falls to 2 gCO₂/MJ, reflecting deep electrification and power sector decarbonisation.

Policies such as the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC), Eco-Niwas Samhita, appliance efficiency standards, and the India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) support this transition by improving building efficiency and moderating cooling demand growth.2, 3 Together, electrification, efficiency, and clean power can enable buildings to accommodate rising energy needs while substantially reducing emissions.

India's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions

MtCO₂/yr

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for India

Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Buildings sector decarbonised by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
125
161
155
151
34
8
0
2048
Relative to reference year in %
29%
24%
21%
-73%
-94%
-100%
Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Share of electricity
%
23
33
45
54
84
90
92
Share of heat
%
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
Share of hydrogen
%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. The year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

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