What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Future Pathway
Current trends and future pathway
India’s emissions under current policies continue on an upward trajectory, driven by expanding electricity demand, industrial growth, and ongoing coal capacity additions, even as renewable deployment accelerates. The most recent historical data shows total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) at roughly 4 GtCO₂e in 2024, with projections under current policies indicating further growth into the 2030s.1 This trend reflects a dual strategy of rapid clean energy expansion alongside continued fossil fuel development, particularly coal, which remains central to power generation and industrial energy use.
India's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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The 1.5ºC compatible Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario allows emissions to peak at around 4.7 GtCO₂e in 2030 before entering a sustained decline. For a developing country, this window to 2030 is significant. It provides time to align infrastructure investment, grid expansion, industrial strategy and employment planning with a longer-term transition pathway which minimises overshoot of the 1.5°C limit at the global level. The critical question is not whether emissions fall tomorrow, but whether present investment choices enable a peak before 2030 and create the conditions for steady reductions thereafter.
Using this period strategically can support more deliberate planning. Accelerating renewable integration, improving efficiency, modernising grids, and preparing coal-dependent regions for economic diversification are all critical aspects of sustainable energy planning. At the same time, long-term mitigation will depend on structural shifts in energy use and production.
Long term pathway
India has committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2070 and submitted its Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) in 2022 to outline sectoral transformation pathways across power, industry, transport, buildings and land use.2 While the strategy provides directional priorities, coal remains embedded in long-term energy planning, and the extent to which all greenhouse gases are comprehensively covered remains subject to interpretation.
Aligning with 1.5°C would see India’s total greenhouse gas emissions (excluding LULUCF) decline to around 1.6 GtCO₂e by 2050, compared to about 4 GtCO₂e in 2024. This implies a reduction of roughly 2.4 GtCO₂e (around 60%) from 2024 levels by mid-century.
Reaching net zero would require residual emissions to be balanced by land sinks and other carbon dioxide removal approaches. India’s NDC includes a pledge to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 GtCO₂ by 2030 through added forest and tree cover, although the long-term scale and permanence of such removals remain important uncertainties.3,4
India's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. The 1.5°C compatible pathway is based on the HPA scenario and shows total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks for India. Benchmarks are based on the HPA scenario. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2005
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
1856
|
3724
|
4448
|
3740
|
2736
|
1380
|
930
|
487
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
140%
|
102%
|
47%
|
-26%
|
-50%
|
-74%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
1114
|
2742
|
3276
|
2565
|
1610
|
489
|
111
|
-185
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
194%
|
130%
|
45%
|
-56%
|
-90%
|
-117%
|
||
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
1666
|
1149 to
2080
|
919 to
1737
|
810 to
1357
|
369 to
975
|
387 to
951
|
359 to
1097
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-31 to
25%
|
-45 to
4%
|
-51 to
-19%
|
-78 to
-41%
|
-77 to
-43%
|
-78 to
-34%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
924
|
-3299 to
-2368
|
-2821 to
-2002
|
-1927 to
-1379
|
-1011 to
-405
|
-544 to
21
|
-128 to
609
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-457 to
-356%
|
-405 to
-317%
|
-309 to
-249%
|
-209 to
-144%
|
-159 to
-98%
|
-114 to
-34%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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