What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Under the HPA scenario, fossil fuels would need to be phased out by 2030. Renewables (including biofuels) would reach 85% of the power mix by 2030 up from 45% in 2023. The remainder of the mix in 2030 would be supplied by nuclear. Renewables grow to 92% by 2035 and reach 97% by 2050. Out to 2050, biofuels and nuclear energy are gradually phased out from electricity generation. By 2050 the grid would comprise of 50% wind and 40% solar energy. This scale up of renewables results in deep CO₂ emissions reductions, seeing emissions fall 73% in 2030 compared to 2023 levels and reaching full decarbonisation by 2044.

Coal has already been phased out from electricity generation across eleven EU member states. However, coal phase-out dates beyond 2030 are still planned in seven EU countries, with Poland yet to adopt a plan to do so.²2 There are still no signs of a committed gas phase-out strategy or date at the EU level, while several EU states continue to be heavily reliant on gas in their power mix. As of 2026, 53 GW of capacity from new gas power plants have been announced or are already under construction.³3

Continuing to put money towards fossil fuels delays the transition to cheaper renewables. Spain, which has rapidly scaled up wind and solar since the early 2000s, has been able to reduce wholesale electricity prices by 40% from 2019 to 2024.⁴4 To make the energy transition cost-effective and make energy affordable for citizens, the EU and its member states need to rapidly phase out fossil fuel subsidies, which on average the EU spends 0.66% of its GDP on. Malta, Poland and Slovakia, have the highest allocation of public money towards supporting fossil fuels as a share of GDP ranging from 3.4% to 1.5% of GDP.

Under the REPowerEU legislative package in 2023, the EU indicated a renewable energy benchmark for electricity generation to be 69% by 2030 – although this is not a legally binding target. The Commission’s 2040 target impact assessment assumes that by 2040 renewables would make up only 85%, growing to 88% by 2050 – however these are not formally adopted.

In 2026, the Commission launched to new package to deal with new energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran – AccelerateEU. The Commission outlines the importance of reducing the EU’s dependency on fossil fuels and prioritises homegrown energy. However, the plan does not include a clear fossil fuel exist strategy. The package proposes to cut taxes on clean technologies, including solar panels.⁵5

Despite an increasing share of renewables in electricity generation, electricity prices continue to rise across Europe. This is due to the EU electricity market design which is based on marginal pricing: the last and most expensive plant needed to meet demand often sets the market price. Final prices remain high because gas still sets prices too often, and because network charges, taxes, system costs, and limited flexibility absorb or delay much of the benefit.⁶6

Current progress in growing renewables to date has demonstrated the costs saving opportunities solar provides, yet the project pipeline for new solar is drying up and the projected addition of solar capacity in the next three years is expected to fall.⁷7 In 2026, electricity generated from solar alone is estimated to have saved EUR 5.4 bn in avoided fossil fuel imports, and expected to be in the tens of billions by years end.⁸8

Additionally, grid infrastructure development has lagged – this has resulted in gigawatts of renewable electricity stuck in grid connection queues or curtailed. About half of Europe’s grid is more than 20 years old.⁹9 Europe’s current grid network capacity needs to be expanded to deal with oversupply of renewables and to avoid wasting additional electricity generated from renewables. The EU also needs to rapidly grow its energy storage system to accommodate the excess electricity generated from renewable sources. Installed battery capacity is on the rise. In 2025, total battery storage capacity grew to 77 GWh, up by 45% from the previous year.¹⁰10 Scaling up renewables and upgrading the grid are needed to support the electrification of end use sectors.

Further barriers still remain. The EU’s grid infrastructure and market need to increase the interconnection between countries, enhance storage capacity to limit or avoid curtailment of excess renewable energy, and disentangle the influence of gas prices dictating final electricity prices.