What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Future Pathway

Current trends and future pathway

The EU has set a legally binding GHG emission reduction target of 55% by 2030 below 1990 levels (including LULUCF), as well as a domestic 2040 target of 85% and climate neutrality by 2050.1

Under current policy projections, by 2030 the EU’s economy wide emissions are projected to almost halve compared to 1990 levels, excluding LULUCF.2 While emissions are projected to fall, they are not falling fast enough to align with the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. To align with 1.5ºC compatible emission reduction pathways, the EU needs to reduce emissions to 228 MtCO2e by 2050, excluding LULCUF, or 95% below 1990 levels. To achieve this, the EU needs rapidly scale up renewables and electrification to rapidly shift away from fossil fuels, phase out fossil fuel subsidies and avoid relying on the use of fossil CCS in the power sector.

the European Union's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.  

Long term pathway

The EU has set a climate neutrality target for 2050, enshrined in the EU Climate Law.3 In 2025, the EU reached an agreement on its 2040 target, which sets out a path on how it will achieve its long-term goals. It set an overarching reduction target for 2040 of 90% below 1990 levels, with the allowance to use international credits towards 5% of the target.4

The HPA scenario charts a path to a fossil free future. Reaching real zero, i.e. the full elimination of fossil fuels, rather than net zero (where some residual fossil fuels can be compensated for by CDR deployment), can help minimise the magnitude and duration of any overshoot of 1.5ºC, by ensuring that all CDR successfully deployed is used to reduce temperatures, rather than compensating for continued fossil fuel use.5

Under the HPA scenario, GHG emissions fall to 228 MtCO2e beyond 2050, while CO2 emissions (excluding LULUCF) reach net negative emissions of -4MtCO2 by 2040, growing to -132MtCO2 by 2050 and beyond. This is driven by a combination of phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). The remaining GHG emission are likely residual methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture and waste. Methane and nitrous oxide emission from energy use and industrial processes are gone by 2040 under the HPA.

While we do not downscale CDR to the national level, in the HPA scenario the EU28 (EU27 + UK) region provides only 5% of engineered removals in 2050. Future work will further explore the regional distribution of CDR, considering both the potential for long-term geological storage and the fiscal capacity to pay for removals.6

Using carbon dioxide removals to counterbalance residual emissions is unavoidable if net zero GHG emission are to be achieved. CDR must complement to the phase-out of fossil fuels and not a substitute. At the same time, large-scale negative CO2 emissions from CDR will be necessary to bring global temperatures back below 1.5ºC after any overshoot.

The EU has not set targets for long term, permanent carbon dioxide removals, but has been taking steps to develop storage, transport, research and governance architecture. According to the Commission’s own modelling for its 2040 target, industrial carbon removals could range between 4 and 75 MtCO2 by 2040 annually, reaching removals of 114 MtCO2 by 2050.7

Under the HPA scenario, CDR deployment rapidly scales up beyond 2030, driven by a mix of direct air capture with CCS (DACCs), biomass with CCS (BECCs) and by afforestation/reforestation. The HPA avoids large scale nature-based CDR given the risks of over-reliance on natural sinks to remain given the growing risk of climate impacts.8

the European Union's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks for the European Union. Benchmarks are based on the HPA scenario. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

LULUCF

Indicator
1990
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
4865
3102
2148
1183
495
228
220
154
Relative to reference year in %
-56%
-76%
-90%
-95%
-95%
-97%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
3552
2294
1444
586
-4
-132
-114
-160
Relative to reference year in %
-59%
-84%
-100%
-104%
-103%
-105%
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
4628
2904
1034 to 1558
677 to 1098
277 to 548
-81 to 253
-15 to 244
63 to 211
Relative to reference year in %
-78 to -66%
-85 to -76%
-94 to -88%
-102 to -95%
-100 to -95%
-99 to -95%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
3315
2095
-1114 to -590
-506 to -85
-218 to 53
-309 to 25
-236 to 24
-91 to 57
Relative to reference year in %
-134 to -118%
-115 to -103%
-107 to -98%
-109 to -99%
-107 to -99%
-103 to -98%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world. 
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). 

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