What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, primary energy demand falls by around 22% by 2030 and to 32% by 2050 compared to 2023 levels. Despite the projected increase in demand for energy, primary energy consumption will decrease due to the higher energy efficiency of renewable electricity and electro-technologies. After 2035, energy demand begins to level out thanks to efficiency gains from electrification and renewables sources –largely because most fossil fuels would be phased out by then. Additionally, energy efficiency measures in end use sectors, especially in buildings, will be crucial to reducing energy demand.

By 2030, non-biomass renewables make up 24% of the primary energy mix, up from 8% in 2023. By 2040, this rises to 60% and 75% by 2050. By 2050, fossil fuels are fully phased out. Nuclear energy is gradually phased down, displaced by increasing renewables – however small amounts will persist beyond 2050. Demand for biofuels peaks in 2040, after which it plateaus. Biofuels will be needed largely in the buildings and transport sectors – but measures should be taken to limit their demand due to scalability and sustainability limitations.

The HPA scenario charts a path to a fossil free future. This comes at a time when Europe’s dependency on fossil fuels has not only been flagged as a climate concern but an energy security problem. The EU is a net fossil fuel importer. In 2024, 57% of the EU’s total energy was imported.¹1 In 2025, the EU imported EUR 337 bn worth of energy products.²2 In its attempt to wean itself off Russian gas, the EU has now become overly dependent on the US, especially for its natural gas supply since 2022.³3 The EU relies on only 8.5% of LNG, and 7% of oil from the Strait of Hormuz, but the conflict has impacted prices globally and is expected to create a fuel supply crunch.

Following the start of the Iran war, and the subsequent global energy crisis, the majority of EU member states have signaled that the transition to renewables should be accelerated or maintained in the short term.⁴4 Additionally, the conflict has led to higher fossil fuel prices, causing energy companies to disproportionately pass on the increased costs to consumers. To address this, implementing a permanent on tax on fossil fuel profits, which in 2022 amounted to EUR 180 bn, would not only lower energy bills for citizens and businesses, but also generate revenues that can accelerate the green transition.⁵5^,66 So far, the EU has not included a permanent nor windfall tax in its planned measures.⁷7

To further reduce energy demand, the EU could resume demand reduction measures for fossil gas employed during the 2022 energy crisis, which proved to be highly effective (such as measures to encourage fuel switch in industry and electricity sectors).⁸8