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Colombia Ambition gap

What is Colombiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

In its updated NDC from December 2020, Colombia pledges unconditionally to reach an emissions level of 167 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or a 51% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to its BAU scenario, including LULUCF. When excluding LULUCF, this translates to absolute emissions of 161 MtCO₂e/yr.

In order to be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, Colombia’s total GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, would need to reach 86-113 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, equivalent to a 25-43% reduction below 2015 levels.

Colombia’s NDC is not conditional on international support. However, Colombia’s fair share lies above its domestic emissions pathway, indicating that it requires international support to close the gap between its fair share level and a 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway.

Long term pathway

Colombia submitted a Long-Term Strategy to the UNFCCC in November 2021, and has also enshrined a carbon neutral target for 2050 in domestic law as part of the Ley Climatica enacted in December 2021.20

To be 1.5°C compatible, Colombia’s GHG emissions would need to be reduced by between 66-100% below 2015 levels by around 2050, reaching levels between -1-51 MtCO₂e/yr.31 On the road to net zero, Colombia will need to balance its remaining emissions through the development of land-based sinks. This means that stringent policies will be needed to reduce LULUCF emissions, which accounted for close to one-third of total GHG emissions in 2014, to become net negative in the future. CO₂ emissions would need to reach net zero sometime in the 2040s.

Rapid upscaling of renewable energy will help to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions earlier and reduce the need for carbon dioxide removal approaches.

1 Gobierno de Colombia- IDEAM. Segundo Reporte Bienal de Actualización- Informe de Inventario Nacional de GEI de Colombia. 180 (2019).

2 Editor. Colombian coal exports. The Coal Hub (2021).

3 U.S. Energy Information Administration. Colombia. U.S. Energy Information Administration (2019).

4 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).

5 IRENA. Energy Profile: Colombia. International Renewable Energy Agency_. 2019.

6 OEC. Colombia Country profile. Country economic profile (2021).

7 Ministerio de Minas y Energia & UPME. Balance energetico colombiano. (2022).

8 Bnamericas. Colombia presenta plan de expansion energetica a largo plazo. Bnamericas (2021).

9 IRENA. Scaling Up Renewable Energy Investment in Colombia. (2020).

10 IRENA. Renewable energy auctions in Colombia: Context, design and results. International Renewable Energy Agency. (2021).

11 Ministerio de Minas y Energia. Nueva Subasta de Energias Renovables en Colombia . (2021).

12 IEA. Colombia Country Profile: Total energy supply (TES) by source, 1990-2018. (2018).

13 Groot, K. de, Vega, C. B.- & Juarez-Lucas, A. Turning the Tide: Improving Water Security for Recovery and Sustainable Growth in Colombia. World Bank 36 (2020).

14 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Colombia. Climate Action Tracker (2020).

15 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).

16 MinMinas & Gobierno de Colombia. Plan Integral de Gestión del Cambio Climático / Sector Minero Energético. (2018).

17 Gobierno de Colombia- MinAmbiente. Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad Eléctrica. (2019).

18 Ministerio de Vivienda Colombia. Resolución 0549 del 10 Julio de 2015. 1–10 Preprint at ismd.com.co/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Resoluci%C3%B3n-549-de-2015.pdf (2015).

19 Ministerio de Vivienda Colombia. PLAN INTEGRAL DE GESTIÓN DEL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO SECTORIAL: Sectora de Vivienda, Ciudad y Territorio. (2020).

20 Gobierno de Colombia. Ley de Accion Climatica N°2169/2021. (2021).

21 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).

22 Climate Transparency. CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT: COLOMBIA’S CLIMATE ACTION AND RESPONSES TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS. (2020).

23 Sánchez Molina, P. Colombia ratifica su intención de alcanzar 1.500 MW renovables instalados en 2022. PV Magazine Latin America (2019).

24 Volcovici, V. Latin America pledges 70% renewable energy, surpassing EU: Colombia minister. Reuters (2019).

25 Gobierno de Colombia. Hoja de Ruta Nacional de edificaciones Neto Cero Carbono. (2022).

26 Guerra, E. & Guillén, J. Leyes de Eficiencia Energética en Latinoamérica y el Caribe. (2021).

27 Gütschow, J. et al. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. Earth System Science Data vol. 8 (2016).

28 IDEAM Government of Colombia. TERCER INFORME BIENAL DE ACTUALIZACIÓN DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE COLOMBIA. (2021). www.cancilleria.gov.co/cambio-climatico-0

29 IDEAM, F. N. P. M. D. C. Third Biennial Update Report of Colombia BUR3. (2021).

30 Ministerio de Energia. Plan Energetico Nacional 2020-2050. (2019).

31 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

32 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Methodology

Colombiaʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
−200%−150%−100%−50%0%19902010203020502070
Net zero GHG excl. LULUCF*
2063
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−35%
NDC (unconditional)
+7%
Ambition gap
−41%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions
2030 emissions levels
Current policy projections
NDC (unconditional)
1.5°C emissions level
Ref. year 2015
151MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system transformation

Under Colombia’s updated NDC, a sectoral emissions reduction target of 11.2 MtCO₂e is set for the energy sector, contributing to its overall target of 51% emissions reduction by 2030 below BAU.21

However, current energy sector policies are not in line with the 1.5°C temperature limit. Fossil fuels still account for 77% of the total primary energy supply (TPES), of which 12% is coal.22 Colombia’s updated NDC and current sectoral mitigation strategies for the energy sector make no mention of phasing out fossil fuels anytime soon, with no stated coal phase-out date.21 Most energy sector mitigation is planned to be achieved through improvements in energy efficiency within the industry and buildings sectors.

Rapid and decisive investment in renewable energy infrastructure and jobs is needed to both reduce energy sector emissions and economic dependence on fossil fuel exports.

A minimum 96% renewable share of power generation and 46-53% of total energy supply from renewables by 2030 would be needed to decarbonise the energy mix in line with pathways aligned with 1.5°C.

Lower proportions of renewables in total energy supply by 2030 would require higher levels of negative emissions to counteract residual emissions. These technologies are not yet available at scale and would require high up-front investments.

Methodology

Colombiaʼs primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 0003 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020502 0003 000
Low energy demand
20192030204020502 0003 000
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 0003 000
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
  • Unabated fossil
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
  • Renewables incl. biomass

Colombiaʼs total CO₂ emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

−200−150−100−5005010019902010203020502070
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Colombia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference year
Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
151
176
99
86 to 113
61
47 to 66
29
−1 to 51
2063
2050
Relative to reference year in %
−35%
−43 to −25%
−60%
−69 to −56%
−81%
−100 to −66%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
75
88
47
34 to 56
11
−5 to 23
−16
−42 to 2
2043
2039 to 2057
Relative to reference year in %
−37%
−55 to −25%
−86%
−107 to −69%
−122%
−156 to −97%

Footnotes