In its updated NDC from December 2020, Colombia pledges unconditionally to reach an emissions level of 167 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or a 51% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to its BAU scenario, including LULUCF. When excluding LULUCF, this translates to absolute emissions of 161 MtCO₂e/yr.
In order to be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, Colombia’s total GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, would need to reach 86-113 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, equivalent to a 25-43% reduction below 2015 levels.
Colombia’s NDC is not conditional on international support. However, Colombia’s fair share lies above its domestic emissions pathway, indicating that it requires international support to close the gap between its fair share level and a 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway.
Long term pathway
Colombia submitted a Long-Term Strategy to the UNFCCC in November 2021, and has also enshrined a carbon neutral target for 2050 in domestic law as part of the Ley Climatica enacted in December 2021.20
To be 1.5°C compatible, Colombia’s GHG emissions would need to be reduced by between 66-100% below 2015 levels by around 2050, reaching levels between -1-51 MtCO₂e/yr.31 On the road to net zero, Colombia will need to balance its remaining emissions through the development of land-based sinks. This means that stringent policies will be needed to reduce LULUCF emissions, which accounted for close to one-third of total GHG emissions in 2014, to become net negative in the future. CO₂ emissions would need to reach net zero sometime in the 2040s.
Rapid upscaling of renewable energy will help to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions earlier and reduce the need for carbon dioxide removal approaches.
13 Groot, K. de, Vega, C. B.- & Juarez-Lucas, A. Turning the Tide: Improving Water Security for Recovery and Sustainable Growth in Colombia. World Bank 36 (2020).
31 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
32 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
Under Colombia’s updated NDC, a sectoral emissions reduction target of 11.2 MtCO₂e is set for the energy sector, contributing to its overall target of 51% emissions reduction by 2030 below BAU.21
However, current energy sector policies are not in line with the 1.5°C temperature limit. Fossil fuels still account for 77% of the total primary energy supply (TPES), of which 12% is coal.22 Colombia’s updated NDC and current sectoral mitigation strategies for the energy sector make no mention of phasing out fossil fuels anytime soon, with no stated coal phase-out date.21 Most energy sector mitigation is planned to be achieved through improvements in energy efficiency within the industry and buildings sectors.
Rapid and decisive investment in renewable energy infrastructure and jobs is needed to both reduce energy sector emissions and economic dependence on fossil fuel exports.
A minimum 96% renewable share of power generation and 46-53% of total energy supply from renewables by 2030 would be needed to decarbonise the energy mix in line with pathways aligned with 1.5°C.
Lower proportions of renewables in total energy supply by 2030 would require higher levels of negative emissions to counteract residual emissions. These technologies are not yet available at scale and would require high up-front investments.
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Colombia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.