Emissions profile
Chile’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are dominated by power and heating, which accounted for 32% of total GHG emissions in 2016, followed by transport at 24%. Total GHG emissions increased by 22% between 2010–2016.3 As Chile’s power sector is responsible for the largest share of total emissions, it remains the main policy focus for the implementation and compliance of the country’s NDC.
The forestry sector has been an important carbon sink for the past two decades, absorbing on average -62 MtCO₂/year between 2006 and 2016. However, the sector saw a significant increase in emissions in 2018 due to large forest fires.1
1 Climate Analytics & NewClimate Institute. Climate Action Tracker Chile 2022 update. 2022.
2 PIK. PRIMAP: Paris-Reality Check, Chile. 2016.
3 Ministerio de Energía. Energia abierta: Balance nacional de energía.
4 Guerra, E. & Guillén, J. Leyes de Eficiencia Energética en Latinoamérica y el Caribe. 2021.
5 Ministry of Energy. Energia 2050 Politica Energetica de Chile. 2022.
6 Ministerio de Minería, G. de C. Minería 2050. Politica Nacional Minera. 2022.
7 International Energy Agency. Country Profile: Chile. 2019.
8 S&P Global Platts. Chile lifts coal imports, but limited by rising natural gas supplies | S&P Global Platts. 2019.
9 Gobierno de of Chile. Presidente Piñera presentó plan para cerrar todas las centrales energéticas a carbón para que Chile sea carbono neutral. 4 de Junio. 2019.
10 Government of Chile. Chile’s Nationally Determined Contribution – Update 2020. 2020.
11 Climate Action Tracker. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker. 2020.
12 Ministerio de Energia del Gobierno de Chile. NDC y Plan de Carbono Neutralidad 2050. 2020.
13 Ministerio de Energia- Gobierno de Chile. Plataforma de Electromovilidad. Orientaciones de Politicas Publicas. 2022.
14 EBP Chile. Estudio de Movilidad Eléctrica en Chile. 2018.
15 La Tercera. El plan que busca convertir a Chile en el segundo país con más buses eléctricos del mundo. Electricidad. La revista energetica de Chile. 2018.
16 Government of Chile. Chile announces that it will work to put an end to coal use by 2030 after joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance. 2021.
17 Ministerio de Energía. Energía 2050: Política Energética de Chile. 2015.
18 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-Hist national historical emissions time series (1990-2021). 2022.
19 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement goal. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
Chileʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
By sector
- Power
- Transport
- Industry (energy use)
- Buildings
- Fugitive emissions
- Other
- Agriculture
- Industry (processes)
- Waste
- LULUCF
By gas
- CO₂
- CH₄
- N₂O
- Other
Sectors by gas
Energy
Agriculture
Industry (processes)
Energy system
Chile’s energy mix is dominated by oil, accounting for roughly 42% of its total energy supply in 2019.7 Meanwhile, in the power sector, coal and gas account for 37% and 19% of generation, respectively. Phasing out fossil fuels within the power sector will be the most important driver of decarbonisation, together with shifting away from the use of oil in the transport sector.
Chile imports coal and fossil gas, mostly from Colombia and Argentina.8 In mid-2019, the government announced its plans to close eight (out of 28) older coal power plants by 2024, and the rest by 2040.7,9,17 The government updated its national energy policy in 2022 with a vision to 2050. The plan contains a roadmap for the energy transition with targets to increase the share of renewables in electricity generation to 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2050, from around 47% renewable share in 2019.1,5
In recent years, solar and wind power generation has increased. In 2020, generation from non-conventional renewable sources (primarily solar and wind) reached a 25% share of total electricity generation.1
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
NDC target
Unconditional NDC target:
- Absolute emissions limit of 95 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).10
- Peak emissions by 2025.
- Emissions budget of 1100 MtCO₂e between 2020 and 2030.
- 14% below 2016 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
Market mechanism
- Chile does not exclude the use of market mechanisms, formally recognising Article 6 in its NDC.
Sectoral targets
Energy
- 60% target for energy sector emission reductions by 2050.
Power
- Share of renewables in electricity generation to reach 80% by 2030, and 100% by 2050.5
- Coal phase-out by 2040 (5.5 GW by 2040).
Buildings
- 100% of new buildings are net zero energy consuming by 2030 and built using sustainable national standards.
- 100% of all buildings residential and non-residential are zero net energy consumption.
LULUCF
- Reducing emissions from land use and land degradation by 25% by 2030 compared to the average between 2001 and 2013.10