What is Chile's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Chile’s 2022 emissions were 116 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF,1 with the energy sector accounting for 75% of total emissions. Agriculture is a distant second, accounting for 10% of emissions in 2022, followed by waste and industry (processes) at roughly 7% each.

Transport is the largest driver of emissions in the energy sector at 27% of total emissions, followed by the power sector (25%) and industry (energy use, 15%). Chile’s motor vehicle fleet is dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles and emissions from the transport sector have been growing steadily over the past decade although uptake of electric vehicles grew over 75% in 2024.23

The power sector is also major source of energy-related emissions, accounting for one-quarter of Chile’s total emissions. Increasing uptake of wind and solar generation, supported by decreasing coal-fired generation, has led to emissions from the power sector declining from 38 MtCO₂e in 2019 to 29 MtCO₂e in 2022.4 Chile also continues to increase its hydro generation capacity and its energy storage capacity.5

Eleven coal-fired power plants have been closed since 2019, and a further nine have signalled commitments to retire or convert to thermal storage plants. However, eight remaining coal plants have yet to establish a plan to shut down and are not legally obliged to halt operations until 2040.6 This is not aligned with 1.5ºC pathways – across all analysed pathways unabated coal and fossil gas are both phased out by 2035, with current plans just falling shy of this goal.

Chile's 2022 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions

Energy overview and main policy gaps

In 2023 oil, fossil gas, and coal accounted for 67% of Chile’s total energy supply. Much of this was used in industry and the transport sector. In the residential sector, oil, coal and biomass are widely used for heating and cooking with electricity accounting for 26% of total final consumption in the sector in 2022.7

Chile has highly favourable natural conditions for wind and solar generation, supporting a variety of solar generation technologies and both on and off-shore wind.8 Wind and solar generation capacity has increased significantly in recent years, rising from roughly 8% of installed capacity in 2015 to 50% as of December 2024.9,10 The Framework Law on Climate Change, enacted in 2022, sets a 2050 carbon neutrality and 100% clean electricity system target. In December 2024, Chile modified its General Law of Electric Services to support buildout of electricity transmission and storage infrastructure and increase efficiency in the energy market.11

Targets and commitments

Unconditional target in 2020 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • Chile commits to a GHG emission budget not exceeding 1,100 MtCO2e between 2020 and 2030, with a GHG emissions maximum (peak) by 2025, and a GHG emissions level of 95 MtCO2e by 2030.12,13

When excluding LULUCF, Chile’s target translates to:

  • 1-8% above 2010 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF), or 88-96MtCO2e 14

Conditional target in 2020 NDC:

As expressed by the country:
In addition, under certain specific conditions (financial, markets, technological and political) Chile could exceed a 30% reduction, potentially with a reduction of up to 45% in net emissions by 2030, taking into account actions for GHG emissions mitigation and/or capture.15

When excluding LULUCF, Chile’s target translates to:

  • 8% above 2010 by 2030 or 95 MtCO2e16

Long-term target

As formulated by the country:
Mitigation Goal: By the year 2050 at the latest neutrality of greenhouse gas emissions shall be achieved.17

  • Chile has established a net zero target of 2050.18

  • Chile included the 2050 target in its updated NDC submitted to the UNFCCC in 2020 and codified the target in the Framework Law on Climate Change (2022) .[^19]

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