What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
In 2021, the transport sector consumed 14% of total final energy in Bangladesh.1 Under all analysed pathways, the emissions intensity of Bangladesh’s transport sector starts to decline after 2025, although total emissions continue growing until the mid-2030s.
Bangladesh's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Deep Electrification pathway – which best captures the potential for electrification of the sector – shows the greatest reduction in emissions intensity due to a high share of renewables (25% in 2040 and 60% in 2050), which can be driven by electric vehicle (EV) subsidies and a rollout of charging infrastructure. However, the Net-Zero Commitments pathway which reaches global net zero CO2 emissions around 2050, shows a deeper cut in direct emissions from this sector.
Bangladesh’s transport sector is beginning to pivot towards electrification, though progress remains incremental. The government has set a target of reaching 30% EV penetration in new car sales by 2030 and has introduced supporting policies such as the Automobile Industry Development Policy 2021 and the Electric Vehicle Charging Guideline 2022.2,3,4 To stimulate uptake, duty cuts and tax incentives for EV imports are under discussion, while a UNDP-GEF project is working on business models and capacity building for large-scale adoption.5,6
Despite these steps, adoption remains limited. The high upfront cost of EVs, slow development of charging networks, and regulatory uncertainty – particularly around three-wheelers and two-wheelers – continue to hold back widespread uptake.7
The most scalable electrification gains come from two and three wheelers, urban buses, last-mile delivery, and selected rail/ferry applications, segments that disproportionately drive petrol/diesel consumption today and are operationally suited to depot/destination charging.
Bangladesh's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Bangladesh
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
13
|
10 to
15
|
10 to
15
|
7 to
12
|
3 to
7
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-23 to
15%
|
-23 to
15%
|
-46 to
-8%
|
-77 to
-46%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
1
|
2 to
7
|
5 to
13
|
11 to
25
|
30 to
60
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
17
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
7
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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