What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Senegal’s GHG emissions reached 32.9 MtCO2e in 2022, excluding LULUCF, mainly from agriculture (41%), the energy sector (35%), industrial processes (13%) and the waste sector (10%). Current trends suggest that emissions will continue to rise across all sectors, as Senegal’s economy grows at one of the fastest rates in Africa (8.3% GDP growth in 2023).1
Agriculture sector emissions continue to increase gradually, with methane dominating. Even though the NPE doesn’t develop pathways for agriculture, it is included here due to the high share of total emissions, and overall importance of the sector to the country. Considering the large impact of the agriculture sector on emissions, it would be important to implement mitigation policies wherever possible or utilise emissions reduction technologies in other sectors to compensate.
The transport sector is the dominant contributor to the energy sector’s emissions (14% of national emissions), followed by the power sector (12%). Industrial process and energy emissions combined accounted for 17.6% of Senegal’s total GHG emissions.
Senegal's 2022 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
-
Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
-
Energy overview and main policy gaps
Fossil fuels made up the majority of Senegal's energy mix in 2022, dominated by oil (64%), which is largely imported.
In 2015, Senegal put in place renewable energy and energy efficiency action plans for 2015-2030, featuring a suite of financial, capacity building and legislative reform measures to support uptake.2 In June 2023, Senegal announced its intention to increase its renewable energy target to 40% of the electricity mix by 2030 as a condition of its Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) agreement signed with international partners.3 Senegal is on track to reach the NDC’s conditional renewable targets, achieving 80% of its 335 MW of installed solar and 60% of its 250 MW wind energy targets in 2022.4
Notwithstanding the JETP support of the country’s plans to expand renewables, the 2018 “Gas to Power” strategy still underpins the government’s energy plans.5,6 The strategy outlines an intention to exploit newly discovered oil and gas fields to achieve universal access to electricity and foster socio-economic development.7 A 2022 study found that by shifting to renewables, Senegal could generate 6700 job years per MWh annually,8 more than four times more than would be expected from investing in the fossil gas sector (1500 annual job years per MWh).9 This could also provide an alternative to the fiscal dependency the country has to the oil and gas sector, which should be addressed as part of the decarbonisation process, through a just transition.
Targets and commitments
Unconditional target in 2020 NDC:
As expressed by the country:10
-
Total GHG emissions compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) reference situation of:
-
5% GHG emissions reductions by 2025
-
7% GHG emissions reductions by 2030
-
Re-expressed excluding LULUCF:
- 129% above 2010 by 2030
Conditional target in 2020 NDC:
As expressed by the country:11
-
Total GHG emissions compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) reference situation of:
-
23.7% GHG emissions reductions by 2025
-
29.5% GHG emissions reductions by 2030 or 14 MtCO2e
-
Re-expressed excluding LULUCF:
- 74% above 2010 by 2030
Long-term target
As of the end of May 2025 Senegal has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.