What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Senegal
Transport electrification is the fastest route to cut emissions and ease public debt pressures
Rapid electrification of Senegal’s transport sector, the country’s largest CO₂ source and imported oil consumer, is critical for aligning with a 1.5°C pathway. Under the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, the transition away from oil begins post-2030, with a full phase out occurring in the 2060s. Reducing reliance on imported heavy fuel oil would lower exposure to global price shocks and ease public debt pressures, while delivering co-benefits through improved air quality, lower energy costs, and accelerated decarbonisation.
Senegal's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
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A renewables-led power transition can deliver energy resilience and universal electricity access
Scaling up renewable energy can enable almost full decarbonisation of the power sector by 2040 while meeting rising demand. Supported by public-private finance and international mechanisms such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership, decarbonisation can bring a multitude of co-benefits, such as reducing import dependence, strengthening energy security, supporting universal electricity access and improving air quality – all while creating more domestic jobs than the fossil gas sector can.
Fossil fuel expansion risks locking in emissions and diverting investment from clean growth
Expanding domestic oil and gas production, including new refining capacity, risks increasing emissions and locking Senegal into a carbon-intensive infrastructure. This would divert limited financial and institutional resources away from renewables and clean technologies, slowing the transition and increasing long-term economic risks amid global decarbonisation trends.