What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, gas-fired power generation increased from 29% (2010) to 41% (2012) of the fuel mix, and oil-fired power increased from 8% (2010) to 17% (2012). While oil use quickly receded, coal and gas-fired power generation continued to grow for several years, leading to their respective 32% and 36% shares in the electricity mix in 2021. Renewable power met 21% of electricity demand in 2021.1
With its Sixth Strategic Energy Plan, Japan is targeting a power mix of 20-22% nuclear, 36-38% renewables, 20% gas, 19% coal and 2% oil by 2030.2 The government is restarting nuclear power plants that have met the world’s strictest regulatory standards.3
Japan's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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Historically, hydropower has accounted for around half of Japan’s renewable electricity generation; however, potential growth is limited as most feasible hydropower sites have already been developed. Since 2012, solar PV has accounted for 94% of all renewable electricity capacity additions, and in 2018 overtook hydro as the largest source of renewable power.4 Japan is targeting 10GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.5
Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, coal would be practically phased out by 2030 and gas by 2040. Other analysis, such as the Climate Action Tracker, indicate 0% left from coal in 2030.6 This would be achieved by approximately tripling renewable generation by 2030. The Reduced Asset Stranding pathway, which minimises the risk of stranded assets by avoiding the build-out of new fossil gas power plants, would reach 74% renewable power by 2030, far exceeding the government’s ambition.
Under the Reduced Asset Stranding pathway, Japan could achieve an effectively decarbonised power sector from 2035, which would align with the collective commitment of G7 members.7
Japan's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Japan
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
478
|
47 to
99
|
4 to
12
|
-8 to
9
|
-19 to
5
|
2035 to
2049
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-90 to
-79%
|
-99 to
-97%
|
-102 to
-98%
|
-104 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
32
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
36
|
7 to
18
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
1
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
21
|
60 to
74
|
76 to
81
|
79 to
83
|
83 to
88
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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