What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, gas- and oil-fired power has increased rapidly. While oil use quickly receded, coal- and gas-fired power generation respectively increased to 32% and 35% of the electricity mix in 2022. Renewables accounted for 23% of electricity generation in 2022.1
Japan's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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The recently published Seventh Strategic Energy Plan unveils Japan’s target power mix of approximately 20% nuclear, 40-50% renewables, and 30-40% thermal power by 2040.
However, under 1.5°C compatible pathways, coal would be practically phased out by 2030 and gas by 2040. This would be achieved by approximately tripling renewable generation by 2030. Japan has the renewable energy potential to generate over 13,000 TWh from renewables alone, more than 5 times the highest generation level estimated for 2030.2
Across all pathways, renewables dominate the power sector, reaching over 60% of generation by 2030. The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for rapid electrification to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system, reaches 65% renewable power by 2030 and 78% by 2040, exceeding the government’s 2030 and 2040 ambition.
Japan's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
In 2023, Japan’s total renewable capacity reached approximately 127GW, an 5% increase from 2022 levels.3 Investment in renewables has declined in recent years to USD 10.5 bn in 2023,4 mainly driven by reduced large-scale solar investment falling from USD 35 bn in 2014 to USD 6.2 bn in 2023.5
The Deep Electrification pathway would see a total 413 GW of renewable capacity by 2030. This would require a substantial increase in investment to an average of USD 42 bn annually in renewable capacity between 2026-2030 – primarily in solar and wind capacity. Additional investments in grids and infrastructure would be needed, as well as streamlined permitting processes to scale up renewables at the rate needed to be 1.5°C aligned.6
In 2021, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) established a 2 trillion yen (USD 13 bn) Green Innovation Fund to fund decarbonising fields which includes offshore wind and solar power development.7 The Green Transformation (GX) Economic Transition Bonds will invest 1 trillion yen (USD 6.6 bn) to support the R&D development of perovskite solar cells, floating offshore wind, water electrolysis equipment and introduction of perovskites.8 Additionally, favourable tax relief commenced in 2018, with the feed in premium in 2022 aiming to incentivise renewable investment.9 To be 1.5°C compatible, Japan would still need to increase the investment in renewable deployment and address permitting issues.
Japan's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Japan
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
461
|
76 to
99
|
10 to
12
|
-8 to
9
|
-19 to
5
|
2037 to
2049
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-84 to
-79%
|
-98 to
-97%
|
-102 to
-98%
|
-104 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
32
|
2 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
35
|
11 to
18
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
1
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
23
|
60 to
67
|
76 to
81
|
79 to
83
|
83 to
88
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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