Power sector in 2030
A phase-out of unabated gas generation by 2030 will be key for achieving a 1.5°C aligned decarbonisation of the power system. Brazil’s current medium-term energy system plans are not consistent with this transition: the government’s infrastructure plans show an almost doubling of gas-powered generation from 18 TWh in 2021 to 32 TWh by 2030.2
There is a trade-off between the timing in which Brazil phases out unabated fossil fuels and the need for negative emissions technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). If unabated fossil fuels remain in the power system beyond 2030, a greater reliance on negative emissions technologies will be required.
The Brazilian government expects renewable electricity generation to reach 802 TWh by 2030, making up 83% of total electricity generation.2 1.5°C compatible pathways show renewables could almost reach a 100% share of power generation already by 2030 (97-99%).
About 60% of generation in 2030 is planned to be from hydro. But hydropower expansion will need to be limited to projects that do not lead to an unacceptable level of environmental destruction, and future climate change impacts on generation capacity will need to be considered.15 Although in recent years there has been an increase in wind energy, Brazil needs to accelerate its deployment as well as that of solar PV to achieve the necessary growth in the share and capacity of renewables.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The carbon emissions intensity of Brazil’s power sector in 2019 has dropped by almost a third since 2014.16 This trend needs to continue to reach zero by 2030. To be 1.5°C aligned, Brazil needs to put policies in place for a fully decarbonised electricity grid by 2030 that can function with a high share of variable renewable sources. The sector could contribute negative emissions from 2030 through the utilisation of BECCS, although the land required for bioenergy feedstocks needs to be minimised to avoid increasing pressure for deforestation.
1 Climate Transparency. Brazil: Climate Transparency Report. 2021.
2 Ministerio de Minas e Energia – MME. Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia. 2021.
3 Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica EPE & Ministerio de Minas e Energia. Atlas of Energy Efficiency Brazil 2020.
4 Gütschow, J., Jeffery, L., Gieseke, R. & Günther, A. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2017). V.2.1. GFZ Data Services (2019) doi:10.5880/PIK.2019.018.
5 Silva Junior, C. H. L. et al. The Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate in 2020 is the greatest of the decade. Nat Ecol Evol 5, 144–145 (2021).
6 IPAM. Amazon records deforestation in the first half of 2022. IPAM Amazonia. 2022.
7 Goverment of Brazil. 4th Biennial update report (BUR) of Brazil. 2020.
8 Climate Action Tracker. Brazil. September 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
9 Ministry of Mines and Energy MME. Brazilian Energy Balance Summary report 2020. 2021.
10 Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica EPE & Ministerio de Minas e Energia. Plano Decenal de Expansäo de Energia 2031. EPE. 2022.
11 Goverment of Brazil. Brazil NDC update. 2022
12 Federative Republic of Brazil. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INDC. Preprint at www4.unfccc.int/sites/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Brazil/1/BRAZIL%20iNDC%20english%20FINAL.pdf (2016).
13 Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C. & Ranganathan, J. Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. World Resources Report (2019).
14 Cruz, T., Imperio, M., Baptista, L. B., Angelkorte, G. & Arroyo, E. Plano de descarbonizacao para o Estado de Minas Gerais dentro de um Brazil clima neutro em 2050. Relatorio sintese da modelagem integrada para o Brasil. 2022.
15 Arias, M. E. et al. Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon. Nat Sustain 3, 430–436 (2020).
16 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).
17 Ministerio de minas e Energia. Programa Nacional de Hidrogênio – PNH2. 2022.
18 Henriques, M. & Esturba, T. The role of the industrial sector in Brazil’s energy emissions. WRI Brasil. 2018.
19 Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, G. N. e B. RenovaBio. Ministerio de Minas e Energia. 2022.
20 Carlier, M. Electric and hybrid motor vehicle registrations in Brazil from 2006 to 2021. Statista. 2022.
Brazilʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Brazilʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- 100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Brazil
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 100 | 0 | −10 to 0 | −20 to −10 | 2025 to 2030 |
Relative to reference year in % | −100 to −99% | −111 to −100% | −114 to −110% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2024 |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 10 | 0 to 1 | 0 | 0 | 2025 to 2030 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 83 | 97 to 99 | 99 to 100 | 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 15 | 0 to 1 | 0 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Brazilʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Brazil to be on the order of USD 17 to 64 billion by 2030 and 15 to 108 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and an expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the later can require high up-front investments.