Emissions related to energy use in Serbia’s industrial sector dropped by 47% between 1990 and 2019, from 9.8 MtCO₂e to 5.2 MtCO₂e, broadly reflecting a drop in the sector’s energy demand from 193 PJ to 91 PJ in the same time period.6
The historical emissions dataset PRIMAP-Hist used here shows that industrial process-related emissions in Serbia increased by 218% between 1990 and 2019, from 4.6 MtCO₂e to 14.6 MtCO₂e. However, Serbia’s _2nd National Communication] indicates a decrease in the industrial sector’s process-related emissions due to a slowdown of its cement, iron and steel manufacturing following the 2008 global financial crisis.5
All of the 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here show an increase in the combined share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass in the industrial sector’s energy mix to around 72% by 2050 from 43% in 2019. Electricity takes the biggest share.
The 2021 Serbian Law on Energy Efficiency and Rational Use of Energy requires industrial plants to submit energy usage statistics and energy efficiency improvement plans to the newly created agency. The law also includes provisions to provide financial incentives for companies to implement their energy efficiency plans and encourages cogeneration.10 However, the government has so far not communicated any policies to reduce industrial process-related emissions.
1 Republic of Serbia. Nationally Determined Contribution ( NDC ) of the Republic of Serbia for the 2021 – 2030 period. (2022).
2 Energy Community. Secretariat welcomes Sofia Declaration on the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans – Energy Community Homepage. (2020).
3 Republic of Serbia. Draft Low Carbon Development Strategy with Action plan. (2019).
4 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019)..
5 Republic of Serbia. Second National Communication of Turkmenistan Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Eng_Serbia.pdf (2017).
6 IEA. World Energy Balances: 2021 version. (2021).
7 Republic of Serbia. Draft Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021 – 2030 of the Republic of Serbia with a vision by 2050.(2022).
8 Republic of Serbia. Zakon o korišćenju obnovljivih izvora energije – Law on the Use of Renewable Energy Sources. Službeni glasnik RS (2021).
9 eKapija. eKapija | Gde smo godinu dana nakon donošenja Zakona o korišćenju obnovljivih izvora energije – Prikaz regulatornog okvira. (2022).
10 Republic of Serbia. Указ о проглашењу Закона о енергетској ефикасности и рационалној употреби енергије Закон о енергетској ефикасности и рационалној употреби енергије – Decree on Promulgation of the Law on Energy Efficiency and Rational Use of Energy Law on Energy Efficiency. (2021).
11 Ministry of Environmental Protection of the Republic of Serbia. Уредба о условима и начину спровођења субвенционисане куповине нових возила која имају искључиво електрични погон, као и возила која уз мотор са унутрашњим сагоревањем покреће и електрични погон (хибридни погон) | Министарство заштите животне средине – Regulation on the conditions and method of implementing the subsidized purchase of new vehicles that have an exclusively electric drive, as well as vehicles that, in addition to the internal combustion engine, are powered by an electric drive (hy…. (2022).
12 Balkan Green Energy News. Građanima Srbije i u 2023. subvencije za kupovinu električnih i hibridnih vozila. (2022).
13 EconStor. EconStor: Orient/East-Med Corridor: Challenges and potentials. (2019).
14 Srbijatransport Beograd. Saobraćajni sistem Srbije. (2020).
15 Using projected LULUCF emissions by 2030 from Serbia’s NDC document to estimate the absolute emissions level including LULUCF. See assumptions here.
Serbiaʼs energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biomass
- Biogas
- Biofuel
- Electricity
- Heat
- Hydrogen
Serbiaʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
Serbiaʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Serbia
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised industry sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 5 | 1 to 3 | 0 to 1 | 0 to 1 | 2039 to 2052 |
Relative to reference year in % | −74 to −40% | −92 to −76% | −98 to −85% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 35 | 38 to 40 | 51 to 52 | 59 |
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass Percent | 43 | 51 to 52 | 63 to 67 | 72 |