Emissions profile
Serbia’s main emitting sector is the energy sector which contributed 71% of all GHG emissions in 2019. Power sector is the most emitting sub-sector, responsible for 47% of total GHG emissions. The transport sector contributed 11% and industry energy use 5% of total GHG emissions in 2019, followed by others. Emissions from the power sector and industry energy use fell by 29% and 47%, respectively, between 1990 and 2019, whereas transport and building emissions increased in the same time period, by 54% and 8%, respectively.
Of the remaining emitting sectors, industrial processes contribute about 17% of total GHG emissions. The metal industry is responsible for the largest portion of industrial emissions, followed by cement and lime production, and finally the chemical industry. With the exception of the metal industry, all subsectors’ emissions have declined in the past two decades, bringing the overall industrial process emissions down.4
Emissions from both the waste and agricultural sectors were declining between the 1990s and 2010, but have plateaued since then. Emissions from the waste sector in Serbia are linked to solid waste disposal and wastewater treatment, while enteric fermentation and manure management are mainly responsible for the agricultural emissions.5
1 Republic of Serbia. Nationally Determined Contribution ( NDC ) of the Republic of Serbia for the 2021 – 2030 period. (2022).
2 Energy Community. Secretariat welcomes Sofia Declaration on the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans – Energy Community Homepage. (2020).
3 Republic of Serbia. Draft Low Carbon Development Strategy with Action plan. (2019).
4 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019)..
5 Republic of Serbia. Second National Communication of Turkmenistan Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Eng_Serbia.pdf (2017).
6 IEA. World Energy Balances: 2021 version. (2021).
7 Republic of Serbia. Draft Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021 – 2030 of the Republic of Serbia with a vision by 2050.(2022).
8 Republic of Serbia. Zakon o korišćenju obnovljivih izvora energije – Law on the Use of Renewable Energy Sources. Službeni glasnik RS (2021).
9 eKapija. eKapija | Gde smo godinu dana nakon donošenja Zakona o korišćenju obnovljivih izvora energije – Prikaz regulatornog okvira. (2022).
10 Republic of Serbia. Указ о проглашењу Закона о енергетској ефикасности и рационалној употреби енергије Закон о енергетској ефикасности и рационалној употреби енергије – Decree on Promulgation of the Law on Energy Efficiency and Rational Use of Energy Law on Energy Efficiency. (2021).
11 Ministry of Environmental Protection of the Republic of Serbia. Уредба о условима и начину спровођења субвенционисане куповине нових возила која имају искључиво електрични погон, као и возила која уз мотор са унутрашњим сагоревањем покреће и електрични погон (хибридни погон) | Министарство заштите животне средине – Regulation on the conditions and method of implementing the subsidized purchase of new vehicles that have an exclusively electric drive, as well as vehicles that, in addition to the internal combustion engine, are powered by an electric drive (hy…. (2022).
12 Balkan Green Energy News. Građanima Srbije i u 2023. subvencije za kupovinu električnih i hibridnih vozila. (2022).
13 EconStor. EconStor: Orient/East-Med Corridor: Challenges and potentials. (2019).
14 Srbijatransport Beograd. Saobraćajni sistem Srbije. (2020).
15 Using projected LULUCF emissions by 2030 from Serbia’s NDC document to estimate the absolute emissions level including LULUCF. See assumptions here.
Serbiaʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
By sector
- Power
- Transport
- Industry (energy use)
- Buildings
- Other
- Fugitive emissions
- Industry (processes)
- Agriculture
- Waste
- LULUCF
By gas
- CO₂
- Other
- CH₄
- N₂O
Sectors by gas
Energy
Agriculture
Industry (processes)
Energy system
Serbia’s energy sector mostly relies on fossil fuels which comprised 87% of the total primary energy mix in 2019. Coal, mostly used for power generation and in industry, provided 49% of the total energy mix. Oil contributed 24% of the total energy mix and was mostly used in the transport sector. The remaining fossil fuel share was covered by fossil gas, mostly used in the industry and building sectors.6
Biomass and other renewable energy sources provided 13% of the energy mix in 2019. Biomass predominantly plays a role in the industrial and buildings sectors, while non-biomass renewables are primarily deployed in the power sector.
The power and transport sectors in Serbia’s energy system represent the greatest opportunities for decarbonisation. To achieve that, the government need to provide greater incentives for a modal shift in the transport sector as well as non-financial incentives to drive the uptake of electric vehicles. Furthermore, the current law on renewable energy sources does not allow yet for solar PV to enter the market, while this could be a strong leaver to deploy solar energy in the country.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
NDC target
- 13.2% reduction compared to 2010 by 2030 or 54.4 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF
- 16.2% reduction compared to 2010 by 2030 or 47.8 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF
Market mechanism
- Serbia is expected to implement an emissions trading scheme under its commitment to the Energy Community via the Sofia Declaration, as well as its status as an EU candidate country, implying future accession to the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS).
Long-term target
- Serbia aims to reach climate neutrality (net zero) by 2050, as obliged by its commitments to the Energy Community through the Sofia Declaration.2
Sector coverage
EnergyIndustryWasteAgricultureGreenhouse gas coverage
CO₂CH₄NF₃HFCsN₂OSF₆Sectoral targets
Power
- The share of renewable energy in power generation between 49–59% by 2030.
- No fossil fuel power generation by 2050.
Industry
- Limit GHG emissions growth from industrial processes and product use by 7% and maintain emissions between the range of +3% to -3 by 2050 compared to 2005 levels.3
Waste
- Decrease GHG emissions from the sector by 13% by 2030 and between 29–69% by 2050 compared with 2010 levels.3