What is Saudi Arabia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Saudi Arabia increased its renewable energy capacity rapidly over the past decade reaching 440 MW in 2021, most of which (330MW) was installed in 2021 alone.1 Despite this growth, the share of renewable energy in the power mix was 0.5% in 2019.2 As per the National Renewable Energy Program under the Vision 2030 strategy, Saudi Arabia aims to install 27 GW and 59 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2023 and 2030, respectively.3 In 2021, Saudi Arabia announced signed deals to construct seven utility-scale solar plants of 3.7 GW combined capacity.4 While these are steps in the right direction, more needs to be done to be consistent with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
While the power mix today is close to 100% reliant on fossil fuels, the share of fossil fuels would need to decline to 0–5% by 2040 and 0% by 2050. Some models show a phasing out of oil by 2030 and others a reduction from 46% in 2017 to 0–20% by 2050.5 Renewable energy can reach up to a 29% share by 2030. A higher penetration of renewable energy sources leads to lower levels of fossil fuels and avoids the need to rely on currently costly, unproven carbon capture and storage technologies. The Saudi government has announced that it will cease electricity generation from oil from 2030 onward, but the policies to implement this target are still lacking.6
Saudi Arabia's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Saudi Arabia will need to fully decarbonise its electricity supply around 2040s. Gas power plants will need to be phased out between 2040 and 2047 and renewable energy sources, essentially negligible in 2019, need to dominate the country’s power mix with an 86–94% share by 2040 and 92–100% by mid-century.
1.5°C compatible pathways further show that the power sector will need to reduce its carbon intensity from 620 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 by as much as half by 2030. With a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technology deployment, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS), the sector’s carbon intensity goes down to –80 gCO₂/kWh by 2050. A delay in phasing out fossil fuels from the power mix would require Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on negative emissions technologies, which would mean higher investment needs.
The government’s focus on CCS development, a technology not currently available at scale, requires massive investments and is inherently risky. A failure for CCS technologies to achieve commercial viability would make Saudi Arabia’s mitigation burden bigger, and raise the risk of stranded assets.
Saudi Arabia's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Saudi Arabia to be on the order of USD 0.5 to 8.8 billion by 2030 and 1.9 to 48.7 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, such as transport with the expansion of railways and electric vehicles; and the expansion of electricity access through investments in increased grid interconnections with neighbouring countries and updates to grid infrastructure. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Saudi Arabia's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Saudi Arabia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
616
|
307 to
384
|
0 to
23
|
-78 to
0
|
2040 to
2043
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-50 to
-38%
|
-100 to
-96%
|
-113 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
56
|
31 to
32
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
0
|
2040 to
2047
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
0
|
5 to
29
|
86 to
94
|
92 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
100
|
71 to
90
|
0 to
6
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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