What is Saudi Arabia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Saudi Arabia’s GHG emissions increased by almost fourfold between 1990 and 2017. A majority of this growth can be attributed to the energy sector with an increase from 136 MtCO₂e/yr in 1990 to 537 MtCO₂e/yr in 2017.
The share of the energy sector in Saudi Arabia’s total emissions has remained almost constant since the mid-1980s, accounting for 84% of emissions in 2017. Within the energy sector, the power sector is the single largest source of GHG emissions, accounting for about a one-third share of overall GHG emissions. The power sector is followed by manufacturing and energy industries (21%), and transport (19%).
As one of the world’s largest producer of oil, fugitive emissions form a notable share of the country’s overall emissions (11%). Saudi Arabia’s economy is heavily reliant on oil exports which were expected to contribute nearly 62% of total government revenues in 2020.1 Emissions from industrial processes, waste, and agriculture constitute the remaining share of Saudi Arabia’s GHG emissions.
Under current policies, Saudi Arabia’s GHG emissions are projected to rise 5% above 2015 levels and reach 738 MtCO₂e by 2030.2
Saudi Arabia's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Last available (negative) LULUCF data point from 2012
Data References
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Energy system
Rapid economic growth in Saudi Arabia drove a more than fivefold increase in electricity consumption and nearly a fourfold increase in final energy consumption between 1990 and 2018.3 While residential and commercial buildings are the main consumers of electricity in Saudi Arabia, the largest energy consuming sectors are transport and industry.4
As of 2019, 100% of electricity generation was reliant on fossil fuels, with fossil gas contributing 58% and oil accounting for 42%.5 While renewable energy’s installed capacity grew to 443 MW in 2021,6 its overall share still remains low.7
As part of its Vision 2030 strategy, Saudi Arabia aims to diversify its economy, which is at risk due to its heavy reliance on oil revenues. The government aims to install up to 27 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2023 (20 GW PV and 7 GW wind), and up to 58.7 GW by 2030 (40 GW of solar PV, 16 GW of wind and 2.7 GW of concentrated solar power).8,9 In 2021, Saudi Arabia announced signed deals for the construction of seven utility-scale solar power plants with a combined capacity of 3.7 GW, as part of the Vision 2030 strategy.10
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Fixed level target
NDC target
- Reduction of up to 278 MtCO₂e/yr (incl. LULUCF) below BAU by 2030,11 which equates to 524-799 MtCO₂e by 2030 or –25% to +14% 2015 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).12
Long-term target
- Saudi Arabia does not have an official net zero target.
- In January 2021, the Energy Minister of Saudi Arabia announced a commitment to “carbon neutrality” at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh.13 In October 2021, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to cut Saudi Arabia’s carbon emissions to net zero by 2060 and cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030.14
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Build the world’s largest carbon capture and use (CCU) plant to capture and purify about 1,500 tons of CO₂ a day for use in petrochemical plants.15
- Operate a carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR) demonstration project to assess the viability of CO₂ sequestration in oil reservoirs and any other useful applications. Capture, process and inject 40 million standard cubic feet of CO₂ a day into the Othmaniya oil reservoir.16
- Collaborate with the members of the Global Methane Pledge initiative to reduce global methane emissions by 30% by 2030 relative to 2020 levels.17
Power
- Install 27.3 GW of renewable energy capacity (20 GW of solar PV and 16 GW of wind) by 2023, and 58.7 GW by 2030 (40 GW of solar PV, 16 GW of wind and 2.7 GW of concentrated solar power).18
- Increase the share of renewable energy in the power mix to 50% by 2030.19
- Build and operationalise giga-project called NEOM, which would be one of the world’s largest green hydrogen facilities, powered by four gigawatts of solar and wind. Once onstream in 2025, the plant is expected to produce 650 tons per day of green hydrogen by electrolysis and 1.2 million tons per year of green ammonia.20
- Maintain a 50% share of natural gas in the electricity generation mix by 2030.21
Transport
- No quantitative targets directly linked to climate action in the transport sector. However, under the Saudi Railway Master Plan, a goal has been set to install 9,900 km of rail network by 2040.22
Buildings
- Incentivise energy efficiency in government buildings, and private sector investment in energy efficiency services. Retrofit the entire pool of public and governmental assets and facilities which include 2 million street lights, 110,000 government buildings, 35,000 public schools, 100,000 mosques, 2,500 hospitals and clinics.
LULUCF
- Plant 450 million trees by 2030 as part of a larger, long-term project to plant 10 billion trees.23